波司登(3998.HK)：深挖品牌，深耕運營，深入打造效率年，給予“買入”評級
機構：天風證券
評級：買入
深入貫徹品銷結合，深挖“大品牌、好品質、羽絨服代名詞”品牌價值
波司登持續推動品銷結合，品牌傳播更加聚焦主推產品的展現和線上線下門店的導流。基於產品上市週期和主推產品設定傳播規劃和內容，使傳播內容與消費者產生共鳴。通過代言人明星大片、明星街拍、產品植入、時尚博主和意見領袖(KOLs)對產品進行充分展示。同時在資源版塊更聚焦種草平台，通過抖音、小紅書等新媒體平台為線上線下門店進行充分引流，促進成交轉化，提升銷售業績。
訂單加大快反，有效控制庫存，推動數字化創新
FY21 公司延續直營和批發訂貨完全分開的模式，極大地優化對直營門店及經銷商訂貨結構的調控，保持穩定的理性訂貨。自 2018 年始，公司對每年首次冬羽絨訂貨會的比例進行一定的管控；FY21 訂貨會首次訂單比例繼續下降到不超過 30%，而餘下的訂單部分則根據旺季市場實際反饋和需求進行補單。
庫存管理方面，波司登致力於持續優化庫存，維持健康的庫存水平。FY21H1存貨賬面價值 26.05 億元，同比減少 6.06%，較 FY20 財年減少 4.4%。
供應鏈數字化持續創新，通過產銷協同打通前端銷售、中端庫存與後端供應鏈生產外包的流程。一方面提升供應鏈對前端銷售的快反供應能力，及時匹配消費端需求；另一方面與核心供應商實現數據對接，提升原輔材料倉庫的精細化運營能力，有利於原輔材料的及時供應和庫存控制。
冷冬速冬晚春延長銷售旺季，激發換裝需求
根據近期中央氣象台的發佈,“冷冬+速冬”或成今年冬季最大特點，本次“跨年”寒潮寒冷程度或將不亞於 2016 年。我們認為，一方面，快速降温將直接帶動品牌服飾冬裝銷售，冬季作為傳統銷售旺季，受益本次寒潮及春節同比延後約三週，銷售高峯時間將有效延長，帶動銷量增長同時有效降低庫存;另一方面，20Q4 開始紡織服裝產業鏈進全面入復甦，我國品牌服飾持續升級產品力，在設計功能時尚等方面不斷突破，同時加強渠道及數字化建設，行業景氣度有望藉助冷冬及低基數快速恢復。
維持盈利預測，給予買入評級
公司是中國知名的羽絨服裝品牌運營商，專心專注羽絨服領域，成為消費者公認的羽絨服專家，引領行業發展。目前旗下羽絨服品牌包括波司登、雪中飛、冰潔等，滿足不同客户羣體的需求及鞏固其在中國市場的領導地位。其中，波司登品牌羽絨服連續 25 年（1995-2019 年）全國銷量遙遙領先。我們預計 FY21-23 年波司登歸母淨利潤 15.31/18.49/21.71 億元；預計EPS 為 0.14/0.17/0.20 元，對應 P/E 為 23/19/16 倍。
風險提示：提價不及預期，銷售不及預期，降温不及預期，核心高管流失。
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