思摩爾國際(06969.HK)：大客户經營高成長，業績及估值有望提振，維持“買入”評級
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
大客户悦刻高成長、公司獨家供應陶瓷芯份額持續提升，有望提振公司業績預期及估值。公司是類煙草產業鏈核心供應商，競爭壁壘深厚，中短期有望充分享受全球新型煙草成長紅利，長期霧化場景擴張有望接力成長，堅定看好，維持“買入”評級。
▍悦刻經營數據靚麗，有望提振思摩爾業績預期。公司大客户悦刻（RLXTechnology Inc.）公吿，2018A/19A/20Q1-3，悦刻國內業務收入 1.3 億/15.5 億/22.0 億元，其中 2020Q3 收入達 11.2 億元，環比高增長，2019A/20Q1-3 收入同比+1068%/+93%；Non-GAAP 淨利潤達 0.07 億/1.0 億/3.8 億元，對應淨利率 4.9%/6.5%/17.3%，未來提升空間巨大。悦刻的高成長主要由線下門店快速擴張驅動，截至 2020Q3 末，悦刻在國內擁有 110 個授權經銷商（2018&19 期末：12/54）、超 5,000 家專賣店，超 10 萬綜合網點。結合悦刻專賣店單店模型及展店進度，同時考慮國內市場監管不確定性，我們推算公司大客户悦刻2020&21 年收入增速有望超 100%，超出我們此前預期。
▍悦刻陶瓷霧化芯唯一供應商，供應份額持續提升。悦刻與公司的合作協議表明公司是悦刻陶瓷霧化芯的唯一獨家供應商，石巖工廠是公司為大客户悦刻運營的專屬工廠，由雙方聯合投資建設。悦刻披露 2019A/20Q1-3 年自思摩爾採購比例為 72%/79%，期末對思摩爾應收賬款佔比 69%/83%。我們預計 2020 全年公司對悦刻供應占比有望提升至 80%以上，提升趨勢體現了終端消費者對於陶瓷霧化技術用户體驗的普遍認可。
▍重申類煙草產業鏈核心供應商屬性。我們認為公司除了具備消費電子代工廠的屬性，更重要的是類煙草產業鏈核心供應商的屬性。煙酒類產業鏈終端產品形態穩定、定價體系穩定向上，供應鏈各環節利潤豐厚且利益空間穩定，較高淨利率及 ROE 具備合理性。隨收入結構變化及自動化水平大幅提升，公司淨利率有望持續上行，ROE 理性回落但仍有望維持在較高水平。
▍短期強競爭壁壘下經營超預期能力強，長期霧化場景擴張接力成長曲線。短期來看，重申公司技術創新及品牌&嚴監管下的優質客户綁定&領先的規模優勢塑造的高競爭壁壘，超預期已成為公司經營常態。長期來看，霧化有望成為人類攝取外界物質的第三種主流方式，市場當下對於公司的業績預期僅來自於霧化尼古丁&大麻的業務，我們認為隨公司底層霧化技術在保健、醫療等場景逐步落地，料將帶動業績與估值的雙擊。
▍風險因素：顛覆性霧化技術路徑的替代；行業監管程度超預期；新型煙草產品處在提税通道。
▍投資建議：鑑於公司大客户悦刻零售網絡快速擴張，新開店及同店共驅收入端高成長，公司供應份額穩步提升，綜合考慮悦刻成長性及國內監管政策不確定性，我們審慎上調公司 2020-22 年調整後淨利潤預測至 36.2 億/51.8 億/70.1 億（原預測：36.1 億/48.2 億/66.8 億元），對應 EPS 0.63/0.90/1.22 元。維持“買入”評級。
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