《大行報告》中金料內地推房貸集中管理制非全面收緊 內房業整合提速
中金發表報告表示，人行和中國銀保監會近日發布《關於建立銀行業金融機構房地產貸款集中度管理制度的通知》，分五檔對銀行業金融機構房地產貸款佔比和個人住房貸款占比設定上限，並對超限銀行設置2至4年調整過渡期。該行指，相關《通知》提出內銀涉房貸款集中度分檔管理制度並設置業務調整過渡期，有助於內房行業長期平穩健康發展，新規並非針對房企融資端的進一步全面收緊，行業集中度料將加速提升。
該行認為，上述《通知》延續了內房長效機制和金融審慎管理制度的思路，分五檔管理銀行業金融機構涉房貸款集中度，具體包含房地產貸款佔比和個人住房貸款佔比兩個關鍵指標，對超限2個百分點以內和2個百分點以上的銀行分別設置2年和4年的業務調整過渡期。
據中金銀行組測算，房地產貸款規模佔比約七成的35家上市銀行中7家單指標超限(其中2家個人住房貸款佔比超限，5家房地產貸款佔比超限)，5家雙指標均超限。該行認為這一房地產貸款管理新規在長期維度有助於房地產貸款頭寸平穩地向頭部銀行集聚，促進房地產市場平穩健康發展，與中央經濟工作會議提出的政策 「不急轉彎」的原則相匹配。
該行指，房地產貸款管理新規對今年按揭貸款投放額度和商品房銷售額存在邊際負面影響但幅度有限，各線級城市分化或進一步顯現。據中金銀行組測算，按揭規模佔比超七成的第一檔銀行中，個人住房貸款佔比超限銀行的超限點數均在2百分點以內，對應在未來兩年的過渡期內年均新增個人住房貸款佔比為26%至30%。
考慮到內地中小型銀行按揭規模佔比不高，大型銀行個人住房貸款占比超限點數不多，同時存在業務調整過渡期，中金認為新規對今年按揭貸款投放額度和商品房銷售額存在負面影響但幅度有限。
中金重申對內房板塊的看好觀點，料2021年為房地產基本面降速而非失速年，預計全年商品房銷售面積、銷售額、新開工面積、房地產開發投資額分別按年各跌2%、升2%、跌3%及升6%。考慮政策在實際執行或存在正向預期差，該行積極提示當前時點地產板塊的配置價值，重點推薦銷售及盈利增長確定性強、財務安全性強或處於改善通道的優質龍頭，內房港股推薦 華潤置地(01109.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK)、融創(01918.HK)、越秀(00123.HK)、寶龍地產(01238.HK)。
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