《大行报告》中金料内地推房贷集中管理制非全面收紧 内房业整合提速
中金发表报告表示，人行和中国银保监会近日发布《关於建立银行业金融机构房地产贷款集中度管理制度的通知》，分五档对银行业金融机构房地产贷款占比和个人住房贷款占比设定上限，并对超限银行设置2至4年调整过渡期。该行指，相关《通知》提出内银涉房贷款集中度分档管理制度并设置业务调整过渡期，有助於内房行业长期平稳健康发展，新规并非针对房企融资端的进一步全面收紧，行业集中度料将加速提升。
该行认为，上述《通知》延续了内房长效机制和金融审慎管理制度的思路，分五档管理银行业金融机构涉房贷款集中度，具体包含房地产贷款占比和个人住房贷款占比两个关键指标，对超限2个百分点以内和2个百分点以上的银行分别设置2年和4年的业务调整过渡期。
据中金银行组测算，房地产贷款规模占比约七成的35家上市银行中7家单指标超限(其中2家个人住房贷款占比超限，5家房地产贷款占比超限)，5家双指标均超限。该行认为这一房地产贷款管理新规在长期维度有助於房地产贷款头寸平稳地向头部银行集聚，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展，与中央经济工作会议提出的政策 「不急转弯」的原则相匹配。
该行指，房地产贷款管理新规对今年按揭贷款投放额度和商品房销售额存在边际负面影响但幅度有限，各线级城市分化或进一步显现。据中金银行组测算，按揭规模占比超七成的第一档银行中，个人住房贷款占比超限银行的超限点数均在2百分点以内，对应在未来两年的过渡期内年均新增个人住房贷款占比为26%至30%。
考虑到内地中小型银行按揭规模占比不高，大型银行个人住房贷款占比超限点数不多，同时存在业务调整过渡期，中金认为新规对今年按揭贷款投放额度和商品房销售额存在负面影响但幅度有限。
中金重申对内房板块的看好观点，料2021年为房地产基本面降速而非失速年，预计全年商品房销售面积、销售额、新开工面积、房地产开发投资额分别按年各跌2%、升2%、跌3%及升6%。考虑政策在实际执行或存在正向预期差，该行积极提示当前时点地产板块的配置价值，重点推荐销售及盈利增长确定性强、财务安全性强或处於改善通道的优质龙头，内房港股推荐 华润置地(01109.HK)、龙湖(00960.HK)、旭辉(00884.HK)、融创(01918.HK)、越秀(00123.HK)、宝龙地产(01238.HK)。
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