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花旗:恒指目标30,054点 料今年内地经济增长8.2%
阿思达克 01-04 11:33
花旗银行投资策略及环球财富策划部主管黄(柏)宁出席网上发布会时指,该行对美国大型股票持中立态度,因联储局及美国国会迅速采取措施提振了市场,不过市场估值不再便宜,很大程度受科技相关股份反弹所影响,而政府挑战或会拖累股市现调整,估计标普500指数波幅或介乎3,700点至4,000点,而该行较看好中小企股,认为可能会赶上大型股的表现。

该行维持内地经济增长8.2%的预测,估计首季受惠低基数,GDP按年增长或达16%,然後逐渐回复正常,而受惠疫苗推出,服务行业可能会在第二季末全面复苏,今年经济增长或主要由私人投资及消费带动。对恒指十二个月目标价为30,054点,而沪深300指数目标则为5,525点,认为可留意「十四五」规划、发展内循环及达到碳中和这些投资主题。

按板块来看,他认为科网股面对监管升温等的风险,而业绩回复常态或令市场失望,美国亦可能迫使更多中概股在美退市。金融股方面,内银股受惠经济复苏较预期强劲,而清理不良资产最差的时刻或已过,削减派息比率的风险降温;香港银行股随着宏观环境改善,估值料进一步温和改善。黄(柏)宁料香港普通住宅楼价将现5%窄幅上落,但豪宅价格或跌5-10%,看好零售物业多於写字楼,估计疫苗或带动零售销售在次季起持续改善。(el/u) ~

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