《大行報告》野村:銀行業房貸建立集中管理制度 相信對四大行影響有限
野村發表報告指,人民銀行及中銀保監於去年12月31日聯合公布,建立銀行業金融機構房地產貸款集中度管理制度的通知。通知規定五類銀行的房地產貸款及個人房貸的百分比上限,並將根據銀行規模和房地產行業的系統風險表現作動態調整標準。新機制自今年1月1日起生效,超過貸款上限的銀行將有寬限期,超過不多於兩個百分點的寬限期為兩年,多於兩個百分點的則為四年。
該行認為,通知目的為通過結構性壓抑家庭槓桿,控制銀行在房地產方面的金融風險,以防止房地產貸款過度集中導致潛在的系統性金融風險,預計房地產貸款增長將會放緩,但貸款利率料會回升。短期內,該行估計家庭貸款增長將放慢,並接近整體貸款增長水平,今年內銀的整體貸款增長料降至約12.5%。
野村相信,由於有合理的寬限期安排,預期對超出貸款上限的銀行影響有限。從個別銀行而言,新規重新分配了按揭貸款行業,令房地產貸款比例較低的銀行受惠,例如工行(01398.HK)及農行(01288.HK)。至於超過上限的銀行如招行(03968.HK)、建行(00939.HK)和平安銀行(000001.SZ),因有足夠寬限期調整信貸結構,估計對信貸擴張和盈利能力的影響亦非常有限。
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