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《大行报告》野村:银行业房贷建立集中管理制度 相信对四大行影响有限
阿思达克 01-04 10:31
野村发表报告指,人民银行及中银保监於去年12月31日联合公布,建立银行业金融机构房地产贷款集中度管理制度的通知。通知规定五类银行的房地产贷款及个人房贷的百分比上限,并将根据银行规模和房地产行业的系统风险表现作动态调整标准。新机制自今年1月1日起生效,超过贷款上限的银行将有宽限期,超过不多於两个百分点的宽限期为两年,多於两个百分点的则为四年。

该行认为,通知目的为通过结构性压抑家庭杠杆,控制银行在房地产方面的金融风险,以防止房地产贷款过度集中导致潜在的系统性金融风险,预计房地产贷款增长将会放缓,但贷款利率料会回升。短期内,该行估计家庭贷款增长将放慢,并接近整体贷款增长水平,今年内银的整体贷款增长料降至约12.5%。

野村相信,由於有合理的宽限期安排,预期对超出贷款上限的银行影响有限。从个别银行而言,新规重新分配了按揭贷款行业,令房地产贷款比例较低的银行受惠,例如工行(01398.HK)及农行(01288.HK)。至於超过上限的银行如招行(03968.HK)、建行(00939.HK)和平安银行(000001.SZ),因有足够宽限期调整信贷结构,估计对信贷扩张和盈利能力的影响亦非常有限。

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