微盟集團(2013.HK)：SaaS服務／數字營銷雙擎驅動，擁抱商業數字化升級時代，給予“買入”評級，目標價18.06港元
機構：東方證券
評級：買入
核心觀點
互聯網流量紅利期接近尾聲，私域流量時代來臨。中心化平台流量紅利開始消退，電商平台自身獲客成本迅速提升，意味着平台上的商家的流量成本也在不斷提高，私域流量積累成為眾多商家的選擇。私域流量積累意味着商户在第一次接觸用户之後，可以將用户留存在社羣圈層裏，後續商家可以以較低成本就可以進行用户的召回。
疫情催化，線下門店數字化需求迫切。疫情期間，線下門店經營停擺，且疫情加速了更多消費場景向線上轉移，線下門店增加用户觸達渠道、改善運營效率加強競爭力的需求進一步提升，紛紛開始尋求門店的數字化。一方面可以對用户做數字化的跟蹤，做更精細化的用户運營和留存，另一方面可以將庫存、資金、員工管理等環節數字化，節省成本提升效率。
微盟為國內商業生態 SaaS 龍頭服務商。微盟成立於 2013 年，目前是國內線上線下零售企業的龍頭 SaaS 服務商之一。公司目前已形成商業雲、營銷雲、銷售雲的成熟產品體系，在微信生態有大量頭部客户資源積累；同時積極拓展線下門店客户，近年以來投資/併購了多個零售/餐飲 SaaS 服務商，預計在產品和客户拓展方面的能力進一步加強。
微盟為新流量平台核心營銷合作公司。公司從 2016 年開始精準營銷業務，目前是騰訊、字節等新興流量平台的重要營銷代理商，在流量成本提升的背景下，廣吿主通過新興互聯網社區進行內容營銷的需求提升，公司作為市佔率靠前的核心代理公司將享受到營銷市場結構變化帶來的紅利。
財務預測與投資建議
我們採用分部估值法，SaaS 產品部分採用 PS 估值，參考 21 年可比公司18 倍的 PS 均值，我們給予 SaaS 業務 220 億元港幣估值；精準營銷業務採用 PE 估值，21 年預計實現 5.57 億利潤，參考可比公司 28 的 PE 均值，給予 188 億港幣估值；綜上，公司合理估值應為 407 億港幣，對應目標價18.06 港幣/股，給予“買入評級”。
風險提示
SaaS 客户的流失率提升，精準營銷收入增長不及預期，可轉債公允價值變動。
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