美東汽車(1268.HK)：“小而美“的汽車經銷商，精細化管理和差異化市場策略雙輪驅動，給予“審慎推薦”評級，目標價33.70港元
機構：華福證券
評級：審慎推薦
投資要點：
美東汽車是一家以豪華汽車為主體的民營汽車經銷集團，主要代理寶馬、雷克薩斯等6個品牌。公司上市後快速擴張，2013-2019年期間，4S門店數量、收入、淨利潤的CAGR分別為25.2%、27.6%和39.9%。
行業分析：1）汽車經銷商存在較好的長期投資機會，售後服務規模起來後，經銷商具備較好的商業模式，即較高的轉換成本、較強的消費屬性、穩健的財務模型。2）消費升級帶動我國逐漸成為全球最大的豪華車市場，滲透率仍有提升空間；豪華車競爭格局，BBA穩居第一陣營，渠道覆蓋廣、銷售效率高；二三線陣營中，雷克薩斯和保時捷潛力大。
公司分析：（1）公司是經銷商中小而美的典型，門店數量、收入和盈利規模遠不及其他經銷商，但盈利能力遠高於其他經銷商。主要取決於：1）精細化的管理能力，包括①持續提升的存貨週轉速度；②售後服務吸收率大幅提升，顯示公司售後服務盈利大幅增強；③費用控制能力較強，銷管費用率隨規模擴張逐漸降低；財務費用率也低於其他經銷商。2）差異化的市場策略，包括①堅持少數幾個盈利能力強、運營效率高的豪華車和日系品牌，門店CR3高達85%，豪華車和日系車收入貢獻分別為81.3%和38.3%；②堅持“低線城市的單城單店”策略，賦予公司在特定區域的壟斷優勢。（2）成長性分析，公司合計佈局了28個低線城市，相對288個低線城市（總量）而言，未來成長空間仍較大；併購是公司規模擴張的潛在動力；公司門店開業時間中位數不到3年，售後服務的成長潛力大。
盈利預測：預計2020-2022年收入為207.4億元、279.9億元、377.9億元，同比增長26.9%、34.9%和35.0%；歸屬淨利潤分別為7.3億元、10.1億元和13.7億元，同比增長32.1%、38.7%和36.1%；考慮到公司精細化的管理能力、差異化的市場策略和成長性，給予公司35倍PE，目標價33.7港元。
風險提示：新車銷售不及預期；整車廠直營模式顛覆經銷商；新能源汽車加速滲透，售後市場規模超預期縮減；途虎等互聯網後市場玩家的競爭。
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