微盟集團(02013.HK):視頻直播、零售、廣吿,微盟發展三大強勁動力,維持“買入”評級
機構:西部證券
評級:買入
結論:微盟受益於微信“視頻化+電商化”趨勢發展以及零售業務的發展。微盟順應視頻化趨勢以及積極開拓線下業務促進SaaS業務發展;微信規範廣吿業務體系,微盟精準營銷業務深綁騰訊廣吿會進一步受益。
微信不斷加碼視頻,對微盟影響在哪?微盟順應視頻化趨勢,佈局直播通道瓜分直播帶貨紅利。1)短視頻行業迅速發展,直播帶貨成為電商發展主要趨勢之一。2)微信從2019年開始加碼短視頻,本月微信公眾號開放視頻窗口,微信公眾號與視頻號雙向打通。
線下商户不斷入駐私域生態,是否對微盟業績產生明顯影響?微盟今年11月收購海鼎,全面佈局零售業務,今年零售業務有望實現2+倍發展。1)線下商户不斷入駐私域生態,新零售是今年私域電商又一大增長點,例如今年雙11格力把優惠基本都放在微信私域電商,格力空調全網銷售第一名。2)醫藥零售行業開始關注私域流量,紛紛着手佈局私域電商生態。
微信新規的發佈是否會影響微盟廣吿業務的發展?微信廣吿費用不斷增加,廣吿與內容營銷整合,微盟精準營銷業務營收將進一步增長。微盟作為微信廣吿的領先代理商,主要為商户廣吿主提供精準廣吿方案,財經與體育類廣吿主與微盟關係不大,不會影響微盟廣吿業務的進一步發展,相反受益於微信廣吿體系的規範化發展,微盟未來將會進一步從中受益。
投資建議:我們預測公司未來三年的營收分別為22.75、34.12、51.18億元,EPS分別為-0.16、0.26、0.41元。公司作為電商SaaS產業領域龍頭,經營情況較好,給予公司2021年SaaS業務20倍PS,精準營銷業務21倍PE,對應目標價14.65人民幣,維持“買入”評級。
風險提示:線下商户開拓不及預期;SaaS技術更新迭代不及預期。

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