農林牧漁:擁抱後周期,堅守成長,維持“”同步大市“行業評級
機構:財富證券
評級:同步大市
動物保健:下游需求恢復,行業格局優化,寵物疫苗貢獻增量。短期來看,生豬存欄加速恢復和家禽存欄維持高位,動保企業業績迎來拐點。長期來看,養殖規模化、生產規範化、強免疫苗市場化進程加快,動保行業格局有望優化,同時寵物疫苗等新品為動保行業空間帶來增量。動保行業具備短期和長期成長邏輯,建議關注動保龍頭生物股份(600201)、中牧股份(600195)。
寵物食品:增長快+空間大+確定性高,長期賽道優質。我國寵物食品行業處於快速發展階段,但同歐美、日本等發達國家相比,我國寵物食品的市場滲透率、單隻消費金額仍具有較大增長空間。隨着居民收入水平、人口老齡化、空巢化以及城鎮化水平的提高,寵物食品行業有望繼續保持高速增長。同時我國寵物食品行業國外品牌佔主導,市場集中度低,行業競爭格局有望重塑,建議關注寵物食品龍頭中寵股份(002891)和佩蒂股份(300673)。
畜禽養殖:轉型升級加速,關注優質標的成長機會。從中長期看,非洲豬瘟疫情將提升我國生豬養殖的行業壁壘,加速我國生豬養殖的規模化進程,推動生豬養殖企業向下遊環節(屠宰、零售)整合,建議關注母豬資源充足、產能恢復速度快、成本控制領先、資金實力雄厚的生豬養殖龍頭牧原股份(002714)、新希望(000876)。C端渠道帶來增量,深加工提升、穩定毛利率,建議關注白羽雞肉製品龍頭聖農發展(002299)。
種植行業:價格上漲+需求增加+政策驅動,種植業景氣度提升。當前我國玉米、大豆庫銷比處於低位水平,2020年中央經濟工作會議明確提出要解決好種子問題,結合我國種植行業存在的問題,我們認為:(1)以轉基因育種為代表的生物育種技術有望實現產業化運用;(2)種子行業集中度、規範性有望提高,品種儲備多、研發實力強的企業將獲得更高的市場份額。建議關注種子龍頭隆平高科(000998)、大北農(002385)、荃銀高科(300087)、登海種業(002041)。
風險提示:農產品價格風險、自然災害、疫情風險、行業政策風險。
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