中國重汽(03808.HK)：下半年份額大幅提升，全年盈利有望超預期，維持“買入”評級，目標價31.1港元
機構：天風證券
評級：買入
目標價格：31.1 港元
今年重卡行業持續保持高景氣度，截止到11月份，行業銷量已經連續8個月刷新當月銷量紀錄。今年重卡行業持續超預期主要是由於：（1）國三重卡加速淘汰；（2）支線治超加嚴；政策帶來的重卡車型結構變化和部分車型銷量的增長。
重汽（集團口徑）重卡市佔率連續兩月銷量躍居第一。重汽11月重卡銷量（集團口徑）為3.6萬輛，連續兩月市佔率名列第一，我們認為這是重汽產品力不斷提升，客户口碑也隨之提升，帶來了市佔率的迅速提升。對明年，我們認為重汽全年的市佔率有望從去年的第三名提升到第二名。
下半年公司業績有望超預期。重汽（集團口徑）上半年的重卡銷量為11.8萬輛，下半年7-11月銷量為14.3萬輛，也就是下半年的5個月的銷量已經比整個上半年還增長了21%。重汽上半年的淨利潤為29.4億元，公司上半年的利潤質量高，是建立在計提辭退福利8.4億元的基礎上，若剔除計提的影響，重汽上半年的淨利潤或超過35億元。
重卡高端化加速，公司具備先發優勢。近幾年國內重卡產品升級加速，外資品牌加速在中國的佈局，奔馳、斯堪尼亞相繼宣佈在中國建廠，外資高端品牌相繼在這一時點佈局中國，相信也是看到了國內高端重卡的潛力。而在這一領域，我們認為相比於外資品牌，重汽具備明顯的競爭優勢：（1）成本優勢；（2）先發優勢。重汽的高端重卡“汕德卡”今年銷量大幅提升，今年前五月的銷量超過去年全年，11月銷量超過1萬台。重卡行業客户口碑的積累非常重要，用户黏性高，我們認為汕德卡在高端重卡的前瞻佈局為未來打下了堅實的基礎。
LNG重卡市佔率從第3到第1。今年1-11月，重汽天然氣重卡銷量為4.0萬輛，同比增長134%，遠超行業的+28%的增速，市場份額從去年全年的15.1%提升至今年的29.4%，市佔率也從第三提升到第一。儘管目前短期天然氣價格上漲，會影響LNG重卡的短期需求，但不會改變長期LNG重卡滲透率繼續提升的趨勢，重汽長期有望繼續受益這一趨勢。
投資建議：
公司經營情況超預期，我們上調20-22年的歸母淨利潤預測至64億元、74億元和84億元（此前預期為56億元、60億元和64億元），對應PE分別為6.8、5.9和5.2倍，給予21年10倍PE，對應目標價調整至31.1港元（此前目標價為31.6港元），維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：宏觀經濟不及預期，市佔率提升不及預期，海外疫情影響出口超預期
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