《回顾》恒指2020年累跌958点或3.4% 国指累跌3.8%
恒指2019年累升2,344点或9.1%後,到2020年,虽然中美年初达首阶段贸易协议,但新冠疫情先於中国内地爆发,2月再蔓延至全球,多国4月纷纷采取封关或「封城」等措施,美国总统特朗普颁布全国紧急状态、国际奥委会宣布今年东京奥运延期,全球航空及航运业一度几近进入停摆,中美关系亦因此再转趋紧张,恒指3月中旬曾低见21,139点,较去年底收市曾累挫25%。
全球金融市场饱受新冠疫情肆虐影响下坠,商品市场大幅波动,沙特和俄罗斯一度因磋商破裂,4月下旬油价历史首次出现「负数」,拖累全球股市大幅波动,港股亦难幸免。全球央行大量「放水」救市,各国经济数据虽见改善,惟欧美疫情出现反弹,忧经济重启受阻。其後拜登当选为新一届美国总统,结果渐趋明朗,加上市场憧憬新冠疫苗可於年底起推出,兼且内地较早控制疫情及经济稳步回升,恒指跌幅略为收窄,至11月下旬曾重返两万七关。
恒指总计2020年累跌958点或3.4%,收27,231点;国指今年累跌429点或3.8%,收10,738点。
【爆世纪疫情 累跌逾900点】
年初中美落实签署首阶段贸易协议後,因贸易战气氛缓和,市场憧憬全球央行放水撑市,恒指1月中一度冲上二万九点关口(曾高见29,174点(全年高位)),可惜内地1月底爆发新冠病毒,令恒指今年1月及2月各累跌1,877点(6.7%)及182点(0.6%)。其後於3月俄罗斯与沙特谈判破裂後,油价历史首现「负数」,全球经济及金融市场动荡,恒指於3月19日一度最低见21,139点(全年低位),较去年底收市曾累挫7,050点或25%,恒指3月累跌2,526点或9.7%,首季跌4,586点或16.3%,国指首季亦累跌14.1%。
内地其後成功控制疫情及武汉解封,加上美国总统特朗普表示将出台大规模刺激计划,美国联储局3月宣布实行无限量化宽松,各国央行亦跟随出招撑市下,令恒指4月喘稳,4月谷底反弹。单计4月份恒指反弹逾千点逾4.4%,不过「五穷月」效应下,加上受政局消息影响,「港版国安法」更令中美关系紧张,恒指5月跌幅达1,682点或6.8%。直到今年年中,各国经济数据虽见改善,惟欧美疫情出现反弹,忧经济重启受阻,恒指6月累升1,465点或6.4%、第二季则回升823点或3.5%(国指第二季回升1.7%)。
【疫苗好消息 11月呈弹高】
进入第三季,中美双方政治上角力愈演愈烈,腾讯(00700.HK)旗下微信及字节跳动旗下TikTok因影响国家安全为由美国遭封杀,惟封杀令遭法庭暂缓执行,均拖累港股借势寻底,恒指9月急挫1,718点或6.8%,国指跌6%;恒指於今年第三季累跌968点或4%。
随着本地消费复苏,为10月迎来良好氛围,市场持续关注美国财政刺激方案能否达成,恒指10月累升648点或2.7%。不过,蚂蚁集团上市落空後市场表现波动。随着美国总统大选临近,加上全球多间药厂陆续公布疫苗成效数据令人鼓舞,刺激市场炒作经济复苏;其後拜登当选为新一届美国总统,结果渐趋明朗,带动亚洲股市气氛,加上市场继续憧憬疫苗推出,刺激港股走势强劲,恒指11月累升2,234点或9.27%,国指11月升8%,恒生科指亦累升6.44%。
至12月港股於反覆上升,美国联储局於月中议息无惊喜,会後声明表示,将继续买债直至局方推动全面就业及通胀维持稳定的目标。港股走势反覆偏好。12月单月,恒指累升889点或3.4%,国指累升191点或1.8%。恒指今年第四季累升3,772点或16.1%,国指第四季累升1,341点或14.3%。(ta/w/t)~
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