網易-S(09999.HK)：研發能力強，創新驅動，多元化佈局發展迅猛，給予“買入”評級
機構：西部證券
評級：買入
網易技術積澱深厚，護城河高。網易是中國第二大遊戲公司，2019年公司遊戲業務淨收入464.23億元，市佔率20%，僅次於騰訊。網易從研發、運營和IP衍生開發三個方面，建立起了較難超越的“護城河”和差異化競爭優勢，公司擅長MMORPG和二次元等品類。公司的研發投入相較於行業處於較高水平，共有超12個研發工作室，研發人員共計約8000人，研發費用率高於行業競爭對手，並擁有兩個自研引擎：NeoX和Messiah。
擅長打造“暢銷+長銷”產品，愈發受益於遊戲精品化的趨勢。根據SensorTower，2020年網易自研手遊中有5款穩居中國AppStore手遊收入月度排行榜TOP20。公司長線運營能力強，網易目前在iOS暢銷榜前30遊戲中，自研運營超過3年的遊戲有5款。隨着設備性能提高和用户審美提升，手遊行業對研發的投入要求越來越高，作為國內遊戲最強研發公司之一，網易有望獲得更多的市場份額，以及在產業鏈上更高的流水分成比例。
手握多個優質原創IP，開發空間大。網易具備多個原創遊戲IP，其中“大話西遊”“夢幻西遊”IP運營時間超過15年，2016年上線的《陰陽師》已經擁有較為成熟的衍生產品矩陣，開發空間大，例如已上映影片《晴雅集》和2021春節檔將上映電影《侍神令》均是根據手遊《陰陽師》改編。有道發展迅猛，雲音樂生態搭建成功。有道具備工具產品導流、名師工作室、精品課程內容等差異化優勢，有望在K12在線教育滲透率提升的趨勢下獲益。雲音樂用户粘性遠超同類平台，音樂社區運營和生態搭建成功。
盈利預測與估值：我們預計網易2020/21/22年GAAP淨利潤為137.92/163.25/200.12億元，同比增長-35%/18%/23%。通過分部加總估值方法，得到目標價為180港元。首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：遊戲流水不及預期，營銷費用劇增，課程付費下滑，政策風險
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