招商證券(6099.HK)：依託集團優勢打造龍頭標杆，雙擎驅動聚焦財管+自營轉型，給予“增持”評級，目標價12.60港元
機構：東方證券
評級：增持
核心觀點
擁有強大的“招商”品牌與股東背景，穩立頭部陣營，力爭行業前五。1）招商證券最早可追溯至 1991 年招商銀行證券業務部；公司為國內第 7 家 A+H股券商，並連續 12 年蟬聯券商分類 AA 評級。3）公司經營風格穩中求進，經過多年發展穩居券商行業第一梯隊，總資產、淨資產、營收、淨利潤均躋身TOP10；槓桿率、ROE 等核心指標近三年排名穩步上升。4）公司 2018 年提出“綜合競爭力進入行業前五”的 5 年戰略目標，目前已逐漸縮小與前五的差距，並持續更新具體戰略指引與落實“跑贏大市、優於同行”的目標。
依託經紀+投行雙擎驅動，公司加快財富管理轉型步伐，PB 優勢穩固。1）得益於多年積累的客户資源及行業創設性的客户分層管理體系（五類），公司 20H佣金率 0.032%，止降回升且明顯優於行業平均水平；代銷金融產品貢獻度由15 年的 1.4%增至 20H 的 7.3%。機構客户基礎牢固，PB 業務連續六年排名券商行業第 1，機構佣金分倉收入穩居行業前 4。2）依託集團資源優勢，公司投行各業務發展均衡，以更好地發揮投行的機制牽引作用。其中，ABS 業務表現亮眼，位居行業龍頭，併購重組業務成為後起之秀，居行業第二。
公司自營業務聚焦三大轉型方向，並大力發展中性策略：1）量化中性策略及資源配置，提升絕對收益。券商 FICC 業務發展前景巨大，主要聚焦在方向性業務，重點包括配置性和交易性業務；中性策略的資源配置則主要集中在：基金做市，場外期權，交易衍生品等；2）聚焦於海外業務轉型，積累風控經驗。公司正逐步積累海外自營，特別是風控方面的經驗，藉此加速業務轉型的進程。3）方向性投資採用委外的方式購買基金產品，實現收益增強。購買公募和私募基金，對促進機構業務和財富管理的協同起到關鍵作用。
財務預測與投資建議
預測公司 2020-2022E BVPS 分別為 10.61/11.54/12.67 元，按可比公司估值法，對應 20PB 為 1.0x，對應目標價 12.60 港元，首次覆蓋給予增持評級。
風險提示
系統性風險對非銀金融企業估值的壓制；市場成交量、IPO 數量與規模存在不確定性；公司自營投資業績存在不確定性；資本市場的政策超預期收緊。
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