新東方在線(01797.HK)：乘K12在線教育之風，小班大班雙輪驅動高增長，給予“買入”評級
機構：西部證券
評級：買入
K12在線行業空間超3000億，參培率和在線滲透率雙雙增長。受益於低線城市參培意識提升和我國城鎮化水平提高，以及K12在線教育的價格優勢和名師資源跨時空共享實現，我國K12課外輔導參培率和在線滲透率將進一步提升。假設我國K12參培率年均提升3%，客單價年均提升8%，在線滲透率由19年的9%提升25pct至34%，則在線教育市場規模將達到3948億元，20-23年CAGR+64.82%。
大班考驗獲客，小班考驗師訓，K12在線市場集中度有望進一步提升。通過分析大班小班財務模型發現，獲客成本為制約在線大班盈利的重要因素，未來有流量基礎或留存率突出的企業有望率先盈利；班均人數為在線小班利潤率的重要影響因素，對企業的師訓實力提出挑戰，具有多年教師培養經驗的企業更具優勢。19年K12在線CR6約為25.5%，考慮到在線教育突破教師產能，頭部企業具備先發和規模優勢，同時當下獲客成本高企將淘汰同質化的中小機構，K12在線行業集中度有望進一步提升。
東方優播在線小班優勢明顯，新東方在線大班後起直追。東方優播以在線小班模式佈局低線城市，具備三大優勢：教研內容高度本地化，“一城一劃”與在線大班形成差異；師資優質，有望搶奪線下機構份額；新東方品牌背書+地推宣傳，獲客成本遠低於市場上在線大班課。東方優播整體處於爬坡期，毛利率有望隨着新進入城市走向成熟逐年改善。在線大班春季免費贈課收穫千萬流量，未來將與東方優播互相導流，提升用户留存率。
投資建議：背靠新東方集團，在線小班優勢明顯，發力大班空間廣闊，公司未來有望保持高速增長，預計公司FY21-23營業收入分別為16.32/24.82/38.01億元，YoY+51%/52%/53%。採取相對估值法，給予公司FY2115倍PS，目標價37.24港幣，首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：行業競爭加劇；獲客成本居高不下；行業監管政策變動風險
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