通信運營行業：運營商呈增收態勢，給予“看好”行業評級
機構：浙商證券
評級：看好
報吿導讀
1-11月電信業務收入同比增長3.5%，增速較1-10月進一步提高0.2pct，電信行業有望持續向上勢頭。推薦中國聯通，業績彈性最大；關注中國移動，業績有望持續改善。
投資要點
電信業務收入同比增速已呈向上態勢
1-11月，電信業務收入累計完成12451億同比增長3.5%，增速較1-10月提高0.2pct。電信業務收入累計同比增長由2019年1-8月的0.0%持續增長至2020年1-11月的3.5%，我們之前就電信業務收入拐點形成的判斷基本得到驗證。
固定增值業務拉動電信業務增2.6pct
1-9月三大運營商實現固定增值業務收入1592億元，同比增長24.1%，在電信業務收入中佔比為12.8%，拉動電信業務收入增長2.6pct。固定增值業務主要包括IPTV、IDC、大數據、雲計算等新興業務。
移動業務降幅收窄，短信連續4月增收
1-9月三大運營商實現移動通信業務收入8176億元，同比下降0.3%，降幅較上年同期和1-10月分別收窄2.9pct和0.2pct，佔電信業務收入比重65.7%。1-9月全國移動短信業務量同比增18.1%，增速較1-10月回落0.5pct，但收入同比增3.5%，增幅較1-10月提高2pct，繼1-9月同比轉正後增速繼續提升。
2021年5G網絡建設和應用預期樂觀
12月24日，工信部信息通信發展司司長聞庫表示未來5G的應用落地速度會加快，下一步工信部將進一步推動5G實現建設好、應用好、發展好的良好生態。此前中國工程院院士鄔賀銓預測，2021年5G建設將全面提速，全國有望新建5G基站超過100萬個。
投資建議：推薦中國聯通，關注中國移動
2021年5G網絡建設與應用預期樂觀，隨着5G用户數的持續提升和5G應用的逐步規模落地，5G時代電信行業收入有望繼續向上勢頭。推薦中國聯通，我們認為在創新業務快速發展增速領先預期和共建共享降本增效預期的雙向積極帶動下，中國聯通業績彈性最為可觀。關注中國移動，中國移動三季度較上半年經營改善明顯，隨着5G用户數的增長和5G網絡在用户價值上的逐步體現，業績有望持續改善。
風險提示
運營商費用支出超預期；移動ARPU下降超預期；5G應用發展不及預期等。
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