植耀辉: 明年变数不离「3V」 恒指改革有其必要
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，2020年即将过去，今年受疫情影响，大家心情亦相当麻麻，明年又会否雨过天晴呢?相信这亦是不少人之愿望。投资市场方面，明年变数依然相当多，笔者亦会在日後再跟各位逐一分析；但总括而言应离不开「3V」─分别是Virus(病毒)、Vaccine(疫苗)及Volatility(波动性)。这其实是笔者在MarketWatch看到的一篇文章标题，虽则简单，但却是来年左右大市之重要因素。
至於恒指在圣诞假期後变化不大，不过ATM继续「无运行」，阿里(09988.HK)及旗下蚂蚁集团受内地监管机构调查，加上投资市场对垄断法之阴霾，ATM股上周至本周一均呈现跌势，再一次反映中资股最大风险还是政策上。ATM投资价值过往亦偶有谈及，首选当然仍是腾讯(00700.HK)，亦倾向认为政策风险跟另外两者相比可能会较轻微(毕竟手游整顿已告一段落)，只是现时投资气氛仍相当审慎，所以亦不用急於於现水平出手矣。
亦想谈谈恒指改革事宜。今次改革建议之重点，简单之言有以下几方面：(1)将恒指成份股数目增加至65至80只，按照行业组合来挑选成份股；(2)将现有成份股、同股不同权或第二上市成份股权上限划一至8%，以及(3)取消合资格候选成份股最少上市两年的要求。
作为本地最重要之指数，增加成份股数目以达致更广泛及多元化其实相当合理，而将股权上限比重由现时10%降至8%，亦可降低「一股独大」之影响。至於第三点则明显针对近年多有只市值数千亿元计公司上市而采用快速纳入机制，所以做法其实是颇配合当前情况，亦没有反对的理由；但能否真正做到多元化，则效果仍尚待观察。
其实近年上市之新股/第二上市之股份，十居其九均属有份量之新经济股份，所以可以预期，未来成份股中，新经济股将会成为主导，而这亦是大势所趋，皆因全球不少指数像美国标普500指数亦出现类似情况。同样地，虽然个股比重下调，但当成份股内权重股皆为新经济股时，行业股价出现波动亦会对指数有一定影响，因此未来指数波动性亦可能会较现时为高。
最後一点可能就是如何保持香港企业於恒指中之代表性。根据恒指服务公司谘询文件内容，香港公司在恒指占比已由2016年底之45.3%降至今年12月之42.2%，未来仍会进一步下跌(模拟测试下将跌至34.9%)。本地企业成份股占比持续下跌是不争事实亦是合理情况，只是最终能维持多少占比，相信亦难有共识；笔者认为，恒指之代表性已由过往反映本地经济重心及转型，逐步转移至反映上市公司多元化之上。在此消彼长下，未来香港企业占比跌至只得一成亦不足为奇。
最後，在此预祝各位新一年事事顺利，身体健康。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，持有腾讯及阿里巴巴股份)~
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