植耀輝: 明年變數不離「3V」 恆指改革有其必要
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，2020年即將過去，今年受疫情影響，大家心情亦相當麻麻，明年又會否雨過天晴呢?相信這亦是不少人之願望。投資市場方面，明年變數依然相當多，筆者亦會在日後再跟各位逐一分析；但總括而言應離不開「3V」─分別是Virus(病毒)、Vaccine(疫苗)及Volatility(波動性)。這其實是筆者在MarketWatch看到的一篇文章標題，雖則簡單，但卻是來年左右大市之重要因素。
至於恆指在聖誕假期後變化不大，不過ATM繼續「無運行」，阿里(09988.HK)及旗下螞蟻集團受內地監管機構調查，加上投資市場對壟斷法之陰霾，ATM股上周至本周一均呈現跌勢，再一次反映中資股最大風險還是政策上。ATM投資價值過往亦偶有談及，首選當然仍是騰訊(00700.HK)，亦傾向認為政策風險跟另外兩者相比可能會較輕微(畢竟手遊整頓已告一段落)，只是現時投資氣氛仍相當審慎，所以亦不用急於於現水平出手矣。
亦想談談恆指改革事宜。今次改革建議之重點，簡單之言有以下幾方面：(1)將恆指成份股數目增加至65至80隻，按照行業組合來挑選成份股；(2)將現有成份股、同股不同權或第二上市成份股權上限劃一至8%，以及(3)取消合資格候選成份股最少上市兩年的要求。
作為本地最重要之指數，增加成份股數目以達致更廣泛及多元化其實相當合理，而將股權上限比重由現時10%降至8%，亦可降低「一股獨大」之影響。至於第三點則明顯針對近年多有隻市值數千億元計公司上市而採用快速納入機制，所以做法其實是頗配合當前情況，亦沒有反對的理由；但能否真正做到多元化，則效果仍尚待觀察。
其實近年上市之新股/第二上市之股份，十居其九均屬有份量之新經濟股份，所以可以預期，未來成份股中，新經濟股將會成為主導，而這亦是大勢所趨，皆因全球不少指數像美國標普500指數亦出現類似情況。同樣地，雖然個股比重下調，但當成份股內權重股皆為新經濟股時，行業股價出現波動亦會對指數有一定影響，因此未來指數波動性亦可能會較現時為高。
最後一點可能就是如何保持香港企業於恆指中之代表性。根據恆指服務公司諮詢文件內容，香港公司在恆指佔比已由2016年底之45.3%降至今年12月之42.2%，未來仍會進一步下跌(模擬測試下將跌至34.9%)。本地企業成份股佔比持續下跌是不爭事實亦是合理情況，只是最終能維持多少佔比，相信亦難有共識；筆者認為，恆指之代表性已由過往反映本地經濟重心及轉型，逐步轉移至反映上市公司多元化之上。在此消彼長下，未來香港企業佔比跌至只得一成亦不足為奇。
最後，在此預祝各位新一年事事順利，身體健康。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，持有騰訊及阿里巴巴股份)~
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