家用輕工行業：回顧記憶綿龍頭崛起之路，指引國內軟體行業前進趨勢，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
美國為記憶棉牀墊起源地，中國記憶棉牀墊滲透率較低。記憶棉牀墊於1991年由美國牀墊生產商泰普爾研發推出，近年來，從出貨量來看美國市場中專業牀墊（指採用乳膠、記憶棉特殊材料的牀墊，主要是泰普爾和SleepNumber）佔比上升較快，在2019年出貨量大幅增加16.2%，總佔比上升到21.9%。記憶棉牀墊作為專業牀墊的一種，在中國發展歷史較短、產品價格偏高，整體普及度較低，在國內仍有較大的發展空間。
覆盤泰普爾發展歷程，四大核心競爭力成就龍頭地位。（1）重視研發+持續投入。公司耗時10年把太空材質記憶棉創新應用到牀墊上，此後不斷投入研發，新產品、新系列迭出。（2）全渠道策略+全球化佈局。公司加快直銷渠道鋪設，自有門店數量大幅提升，同時通過收併購與成立海外合資公司，產品遠銷世界各地100多個國家。（3）品類擴張+品牌梯隊完整。橫向上品類齊全，覆蓋了記憶棉牀墊、彈簧牀墊、乳膠牀墊、牀架等，縱向上形成了奢華、高端、中端、平價4個價位的完整梯隊。（4）多元營銷+全面圍繞消費者。公司持續通過電視廣吿、紙質廣吿、自媒體、互聯網等形式全方位推廣產品，廣吿營銷費用投入較大。
美國牀墊行業集中度提升邏輯：外在行業不景氣和內在規模效應將是驅動行業集中度提升的重要因素。記憶棉牀墊未來成長驅動因素：存量房更新需求上升和消費升級帶動牀墊市場整體規模增長；消費者健康意識增強、渠道變革及電動牀的普及有利於記憶棉品類滲透率提升。
對標中國軟體傢俱市場，我們認為幾大因素將利好未來市場格局持續優化：（1）外在因素：房地產增速放緩疊加貿易戰與反傾銷，行業格局變化加劇，關税仍在，高税率促龍頭海外代工集中度提升。（2）內在因素：產品、渠道、物流、產能同時提升，助力國內龍頭不斷下沉市場。看好未來顧家家居、敏華控股等龍頭份額持續提升，行業集中度有望繼續上升。詳見我們2020年9月報吿《覆盤La-Z-Boy發展歷程，觀國內功能沙發成長潛力》、7月報吿《顧家家居：三大核心競爭力詳解，龍頭揚帆再起航》。
風險提示。對美出口業務受貿易戰負面影響；房地產竣工形勢低於預期；原材料價格上漲；國內市場競爭加劇。
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