半導體封測端資本開支上升，上游設備材料端受益，維持“強於大市”評級
機構：天風證券
評級：強於大市
我們每週對於半導體行業的思考進行梳理，從產業鏈上下游的交叉驗證給予我們從多維度看待行業的視角和觀點，並從中提煉出最契合投資主線的邏輯和判斷。
迴歸到基本面的本源，從中長期維度上，擴張半導體行業成長的邊界因子依然存在，下游應用端以5G/新能源汽車/雲服務器為主線，具化到中國大陸地區，我們認為“國產替代”是當下時點的板塊邏輯，“國產替代”下的“成長性”優於“週期性”考慮。
受PC行業、顯示驅動、存儲、功率、電源管理IC等領域市場需求驅動，多家晶圓代工廠都發布8寸產能滿載的消息。同時5G、汽車電子市場增長更是驅動8寸晶圓代工需求持續增長。據台媒中央社報道，8英寸晶圓代工產能供不應求，不僅交期延長至4個月，報價也傳出將提高1成，部分IC設計廠決定跟進調漲產品售價，以應對成本提高。
半導體芯片漲價背後體現的是行業景氣，漲價是表象，供需關係是核心。我們判斷，當下行業景氣度高的是8寸環節產品，市場最關注的是當下是拉庫存小週期還是大週期復甦的起點?從需求端看存在大週期復甦的基礎(相比較上一輪16-18週期，本輪具備5G手機，快充/TWS，新能源車等新增硅含量增量)，但驗證的關鍵還是需求端是否達預期。
景氣度持續延續2個季度，會發生什麼情況？邏輯上大概率是傳導，傳導向上就是材料和設備環節。材料是具備漲價能力的耗材，剛需彈性，大宗商品是硅片，光刻膠等(對應制造)和基板(對應封測)，目前硅片還沒有漲價，但在可預期的半年時間內存在漲價彈性。我們判斷，如今8寸緊張程度強於12寸，結構性下8寸供需更緊，如果12寸全面漲價，意味的是可以看2-3年的半導體大週期復甦。標的:立昂微。
從過往歷史看，資本支出往往同全行業銷售規模趨勢保持一致。伴隨着新一輪資本支出週期開啟，看好國產替代背景下的上游半導體設備和材料供應商的發展。建議關注：北方華創/雅克科技/鼎龍股份。
設備對應的就是擴產週期，我們判斷，當下產能的瓶頸是在封測，國內封測在可預期的未來內擴張速度不如前端製造，造成無論是當下需求旺盛的pmic(主要是8寸)還是相對沒那麼旺盛的低端數字類產品(主要是12寸)都在封測這端被卡，未來會發生封測企業主動擴產+設計公司買設備放在封測企業book產能雙重增量邏輯。在行業景氣度提升，順週期下重資產企業利潤彈性大。三家重資產企業均在進入2020年順週期之後，迎來了利潤和利潤的雙重高增，業績表現持續超預期。我們看好順週期環境下重資產企業盈利表現，建議關注：ASMPacific/長川科技/精測電子/中芯國際/長電科技/華潤微。
風險提示：疫情繼續惡化；貿易戰影響；需求不及預期
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