申洲國際(02313.HK)：DCF視角下申洲的長期投資價值，給予“買入”評級，目標價163港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：163港元
投資要點
縱向一體化針織製造巨頭。公司是中國最大的縱向一體化針織製造商，是 Nike、Adidas、Puma 和 Uniqlo 等多個全球運動休閒品牌的核心供應商，在品牌商供應鏈的佔比逐步提高。
商業模式優秀，申洲擁有比品牌更強大的護城河。1）自上而下，運動鞋服零售端連續多年高景氣，上游原材料商百舸爭流，下游品牌商精簡供應鏈方興未艾，行業競爭格局宛如眾星拱月。2）自下而上，公司面料-成衣縱向一體化的生產經營模式下，供應鏈穩定性極強，顯著縮短交期，並能持續鞏固面料優勢，申洲將此業務模式向海外生產基地進行延伸，海外產能有序釋放中。3）公司重視 ESG，高度契合品牌商訴求，保障未來可持續發展。總而言之，公司於全球疫情的負面衝擊下展現強大抗壓能力，其核心供應商地位凸顯，市場份額逆勢增長。
產能擴張穩步進行。公司業績瓶頸在於供給側而非需求側，產能擴張進度是跟蹤公司長期業績的重要指標，公司于越南、柬埔寨的成衣產能正在有序釋放，未來三年合計再招工 27500-28500 人，疊加人工效率提升，我們預測公司 2020-2023 年的產能分別為 4.39/5.13/5.90/6.73 億件， YoY 分別為+2.00/+16.95/+15.10/+13.94%。
申洲國際經營穩健，週期性弱，現金流的可預見性高，適合以絕對估值模型測算其長期投資價值。（1）假設申洲的 WACC 是 6.08%，隱性期的永續增長率是 1%，結果顯示，10 年顯性期的公司價值為 734 億元，隱性期價值為 1204 億元，股權價值 2064 億元，每股價值 163 港元，較當前股價高出 9%。（2）在DCF 模型下，當前申洲估值反映的是每年 6.45%的複利回報。
盈利預測和投資建議： 預計公司 2020-2023 年營收分別為231.19/279.29/332.07/378.35 億元，YoY 分別為+2.00/+20.81/+18.90/+13.94%，淨利潤分別為 51.68/61.56/73.46/84.27 億元， YoY 分別為+4.22/+19.13/+19.32/+14.73%。目標價 163 港元，提高至“買入”評級。
風險提示：未能與核心客户保持合作關係、勞動力短缺及成本上升、原材料價格變動、全球貿易政策變動風險。
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