新高教集團(02001.HK)：內生維持高增速，培訓業務啟航，維持“審慎增持”評級，目標價6.50 港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價： 6.50 港元
投資要點
維持“審慎增持”，維持目標價6.5港元：公司的收購佈局早，截至20/21學年學生人數已超12.5萬人，學費低提升空間大，職教政策扶持學額增速快，公司期內對內進一步收購河南及廣西學校少數股權，對外收購培訓機構“雲專修”，預計未來三年仍將保持約25%的行業領先的內生增速。不考慮公司未來每年自建或併購1-2所的學校，我們預計2021-2023年收入為15.1/17.35/19.74億元，歸母淨利達5.65/6.6/8.3億元。維持“審慎增持”評級，維持目標價6.5港元，對應2021/2022年PE為16/14倍。
公司調整至8/31財年，調整後FY20收入+77.8%。公司調整財年結算日至8月31日。得益於2019下半年收購湖北學校，以及公司集團化運營效率凸顯、學生人數及學費標準持續上升，公司截至2020年8月31日止12個月的收入達12.9億元，同比+77.8%；毛利率同比+4.7pct至47.7%；淨利潤達4.8億元，同比+124.3%，表現亮眼。若不考慮疫情影響的退費，公司主營收入達13.3億元，同比+82.9%;其中學費同比增87.4%至12億元。
在校學生人數穩步增長，生均學費水平提升空間大；考培業務啟航。2020/21學年公司旗下在校學生人數達12.57萬人，同比+10.7%。2020/21學年公司旗下學校平均學費達1.15萬元/年，同比+4.4%，但較同業偏低，未來預計將穩步提升。此外，公司期內輔業多點開花，考培收入+68.3%至三千萬。公司新收購的“雲專修”將於FY21放量。屆時，公司培訓規模有望進一步擴大，實現協同發展。
獨立學院轉設穩步推進，平穩過渡分類登記影響：2018-2020年公司有效税率為8.1%、11.4%、11.9%，穩步提升以應對分類登記後税率影響。公司FY20（調整）銷售/行政/融資費用率分別-0.1pct/-1.5pct/-3.2pct,淨利率達到37.3%，在集團化辦學效率提升情況下，費用率端不斷改善。由於公司重視教學質量，預計毛利率將維持，但甘肅及湖北獨立學院轉設預計於21H1完成，屆時獨立學院利潤率仍有提升空間。
風險提示：1）、舉辦者權益變更不及預期；2）、聘用及留任的合格教師數不及預期；3）、招收數量少於預期；4）、中國教育政策變動；5）、VIE架構政策風險。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
