農林牧漁：把握養殖後周期，戰略佈局種植產業鏈，維持“強於大市”行業評級
機構：天風證券
評級：看好
1、養殖產業鏈：養殖集中度加速提升，動保、屠宰肉製品板塊迎來投資機遇期。
1）屠宰肉製品：上游生豬養殖產業集中度快速提升將推動屠宰肉製品行業加速集中，頭部規模屠宰肉製品企業迎來發展機遇期。推薦：【龍大肉食】，其次雙匯發展、華統股份。
2）動保：長期趨勢向好，繼續重點推薦行業龍頭生物股份。規模豬企出欄規模或加速，動物疫苗業績或加速；非洲豬瘟疫苗打開板塊成長空間。重點推薦行業龍頭：【生物股份】（類醫藥屬性，研發、工藝、渠道顯著領先）；其次科前生物、普萊柯、天康生物、中牧股份、瑞普生物等。
3）養殖：盈利週期拉長，把握個股預期差。重點關注上市公司出欄量高成長，以及成本改善的兑現度，預計2021年養豬企業績有望同比增長。推薦：【牧原股份】（養殖龍頭，關注向下遊延伸帶來的增量機會），【正邦科技】（預期差大，估值低）、【新希望】、天邦股份。
2、種植產業鏈：糧食安全重要程度大幅提升，農產品價格上漲，種植產業鏈迎來景氣週期。
1）種業：農業“芯片”，轉基因政策有望落地驅動產業升級。一方面農產品價格上漲將帶來優質種子需求提升；另一方面行業制種量下降；預計種子供需格局改善，景氣度抬升；蟲害威脅、糧食缺口等多重因素推動我國轉基因政策加速，明年轉基因商業化許可有望落地，全球種子巨頭先正達中國有望在科創板上市，利用先進轉基因性狀儲備推動我國轉基因種業的發展。推薦標的：【隆平高科】、【大北農】、【荃銀高科】、登海種業。
2）農資：農產品價格上行將顯著抬升複合肥需求，複合肥行業或迎來景氣拐點；受前幾年農作物價格下降的影響，在下游需求和國家環保及化肥零增長政策壓力下，中小產能逐步退出，競爭態勢將趨向行業龍頭集中。推薦標的：【新洋豐】（種植鏈中的海大集團）。
3）白糖：全球白糖價格底部已現，拐點已到來。全球白糖價格處於歷史較低位，隨着供需格局改善或將迎來拐點；國內白糖進口依賴度大，當前庫存水平較低，價格或迎趨勢性拐點。推薦標的：【中糧糖業】。
3、消費轉型機會：肉雞（聖農發展&湘佳股份）+果蔬（雪榕生物）。消費品轉型：消費渠道轉型，疊加新冠疫情影響，肉蛋果蔬等消費逐漸從農貿市場傳統渠道轉為商超、新零售、線上、社區便利店等新型渠道。在此趨勢下，重視消費轉型類農業個股：白羽肉雞龍頭【聖農發展】、黃雞區域冰鮮龍頭【湘佳股份】、金針菇龍頭雪榕生物。
4、農業中白馬：持續堅定推薦【海大集團】（核心競爭力顯著、市佔率不斷提升）：飼料龍頭，核心競爭力鑄就壁壘，市佔率有望不斷提升；隨消費逐步企穩，多品類水產品價格提升，受前期疫情影響投苗，預期多品種養殖明年景氣度向上，水產飼料增速有望提升；玉米豆粕等飼料原材料漲價，長期看公司原料採購、成本控制優勢將進一步凸顯；疊加動保種苗進展，業績快速增長可期，繼續重點推薦。
風險提示：國家政策變動風險、養殖疫病風險、種植政策落地不及預期風險、價格波動風險、市場系統性風險
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