盈選報告 | 下遊需求強勁巨頭借錢擴產，鋰價有望繼續上漲
報告背景與內容重點：1. 近期碳酸鋰價格漲飛了2. 生意社數據顯示，截至12月23日，碳酸鋰參考價爲4.78萬元/噸，5天內上漲近5%，30天內則漲超18%3. 新能源車需求爆發，動力電池需求增加是直接原因4. 智利鋰礦巨頭開啓融資擴產，是鋰價拐點到來的標誌性事件
編自中信證券研究《重啓融資和長協簽訂，鋰行業拐點信號明確》，分析師：李超，商力，敖翀。
近期伴隨國內鋰價的持續上漲，全球鋰市場均出現積極信號。
企業資本支出和擴張計劃重啓，驗證了行業已到拐點位置，優質的鋰供應產能進一步得到下遊客戶的重視。國內鋰鹽企業開始謀求原料供應的多元化，也驗證了澳礦供應趨緊和不確定性增加的局勢。中信證券判斷，在下遊需求持續走強的拉動下，鋰價有望繼續上漲。
鋰鹽穿透式採購的趨勢強化，優質產能重要性提升2020年下半年以來，先後出現了幾個標誌性的事件：1）特斯拉與Piedmont Lithium公司簽署鋰精礦採購協議；2）Orocobre公司與PPES簽訂鋰鹽供應的MOU；3）Livent與特斯拉續簽氫氧化鋰供貨協議；4）智利礦業巨頭SQM與LG化學簽訂供貨協議。
車企和電池企業直接綁定鋰生產企業，表明下遊客戶對穩定優質的鋰供應產能的重視，優質產能成爲行業稀缺資源。
SQM開啓融資擴張驗證鋰行業拐點來臨根據智利礦業巨頭SQM的公告，公司在2021-2024年期間將投資約4億美元用於鋰產能擴張，將碳酸鋰產能由7萬噸大幅擴張至18萬噸，氫氧化鋰產能由1.35萬噸擴張至3萬噸，同時公司可能將本次籌集的資金用於澳大利亞的Mt Holland鋰礦項目。
當前全球鋰價開啓觸底反彈，企業資本支出和擴張計劃也隨之開展，進一步驗證了鋰行業拐點的來臨。
國內鋰鹽企業追求鋰精礦原料的多元化供應與贛鋒鋰業簽訂供貨協議的AVZ公司旗下的Manono鋰礦項目位於剛果（金），而贛鋒鋰業此前的鋰精礦原料主要採購自澳大利亞。這一供貨協議表明，在澳洲鋰精礦供應趨緊和澳洲加強對鋰精礦市場管控的背景下，中國鋰鹽生產企業正在謀求鋰精礦供應的多元化。
但Manono鋰礦位於非洲內陸，項目建設和運輸困難較多，距離實際投產還有較長時間，短期內無法緩解鋰精礦供應緊張局勢，所以鋰價預計將繼續上漲。
風險因素鋰上遊供應超預期釋放，下遊消費增長不及預期。
投資策略中信證券判斷，在下遊需求持續走強的拉動下，鋰價有望繼續上漲，推薦具備產能優勢的鋰鹽企業，重點推薦贛鋒鋰業和盛新鋰能。
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