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“暖風”來了!電力股再掀漲停潮,燃氣板塊蠢蠢欲動
格隆匯 12-25 13:24

作者:徐蔚 

來源: 上海證券報

在冷冬的瑟瑟寒風之中,今日A股卻吹出了“暖風”。指數早盤震盪走高,個股普漲,市場賺錢效應回暖。

在個別地區用電負荷不斷創出新高消息的影響下,今日與發電相關的股票掀起漲停潮。火電指數、LNG指數、新能源指數、頁巖氣指數等漲幅居前。

截至午盤,上證綜指收於3389.48點,上漲0.78%,深成指收於13995.83點,上漲0.58%,創業板指收於2829.82點,上漲0.32%。

河南兩大妖股雙雙漲停

早盤電力股集體拉昇,截至發稿,東方能源、豫能控股、贛能股份、深圳能源、晉控電力、寧波熱電、華銀電力等個股已經漲停,樂山電力、甘肅電投、大連熱電等個股漲幅超過7%。

在電力板塊的帶動下,燃氣板塊也乘風而起,國新能源、大通燃氣、新天綠能、南京公用、長春燃氣等漲停,皖天然氣、新天然氣漲幅超5%。

鄭州煤電再度漲停,收穫六連板,近30個交易日漲幅達250%;豫能控股同樣在早盤漲停,這是該股10個交易日內的第9個漲停。

兩隻個股為什麼能走出如此走勢?以豫能控股為例,這或許離不開近段時間市場各路資金的合力,而其風電、光伏、氫能源、充電樁各種概念都有的“大雜燴”屬性幾乎個個都擊中近期市場炒作的熱點,透露出了近期市場資金情緒面的選擇。

而鄭州煤電在昨日晚間公吿提示風險,稱公司股票自12月17日起兩次觸及異動。截至2020年12月24日收盤,公司市盈率、市淨率與部分同行業上市公司比較情況如下(按市淨率從高到低排序):

12月24日,鄭州煤電收盤市盈率(滾動)為-6.8226倍、市淨率3.5300倍。由於公司前三季度虧損,市盈率不具有可比性,市淨率處於同行業較高水平,特別提醒投資者注意二級市場交易風險。

電力需求將持續增長

對於今天電力大漲的原因,主要與近期部分地區用電負荷不斷創新高而導致煤炭供應緊張有關。一方面,12月中旬以來全國迎來大範圍降温,居民使用大量取暖工具,使得用電量劇增,甚至導致部分地區“拉閘限電”。另一方面,工業生產快速恢復也拉動用電增長。

國家電網發文稱,我國電力需求將持續增長,增速逐步放緩,2025年、2035年、2050年、2060年分別達到約9.8萬億千瓦時、12.4萬億千瓦時、13.9萬億千瓦時、13.3萬億千瓦時。2050年後我國人均用電量將達到10000千瓦時左右,介於當前日本、德國等高能效國家水平與美國、加拿大等高能耗國家水平之間。

中信證券表示,近期限電現象意味着煤電的重要性有望得到重估,預計中期內存量煤電的利用小時數提升、電價企穩向好、調峯電價機制加速優化。龍頭髮電企業逐步轉型加碼風光裝機,待儲能技術成熟後有望幫助根本性解決軟缺電問題。推薦華能國際(A&H)、華電國際(A&H)、皖能電力、福能股份、長江電力、川投能源、華能水電等。

財信證券表示,建議關注市場化程度更高、電煤成本具有優勢的發電央企,推薦華能國際和華電國際,以及未來供需格局可能進一步偏緊、受外購電擠壓相對較小和清潔化裝機比例增長較快的地方性火電企業,推薦浙能電力和贛能股份。

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