《大行報告》中金:玖龍紙業(02689.HK)中期成長空間有望超預期
中金發表報告指,玖龍紙業(02689.HK)太倉工廠早前發布明年春節停機計劃,影響產能約8.4萬噸,明顯多於去年同期的3.7萬噸;前期東莞玖龍停產影響產能也明顯多於去年及今年。同時,玖龍紙業廣西北海795萬噸林漿紙項目正式簽約,年內擬開工建設。
該行表示,12月下旬,在下游春節訂單逐步釋放的支撐下,紙廠出貨好轉、下游紙箱廠庫存不斷去化,同時國廢市場供應量略趨緊張,國廢再度開啟漲價節奏,推漲箱板瓦楞紙價格。近期太倉玖龍、東莞玖龍均公布春節停機計劃,估算共影響產能32.4萬噸,明顯多於今年春節的約21萬噸,佔行業月度產量5%以上。考慮到需求的旺盛和成本端廢紙短缺,明年首季箱板紙價格堅挺程度有望超越市場預期,公司延長停機天數,有望進一步緩釋春節後庫存壓力,為節後提漲價格做好鋪墊。
中金認為,明年行業供需改善及成本抬升,龍頭彈性有望超預期,預期隨著出口維持旺盛,明年箱瓦紙需求有望整體向好,新增供給不多,行業供需面有望改善。同時,隨著進口廢紙配額歸零,測算明年國廢實際缺口很可能超過500萬噸,佔總廢紙需求接近10%,有望推動國廢價格顯著走高,使箱瓦紙成本支撐強化。
在行業供需面改善背景下,該行認為廢紙漲價有望帶動明年箱瓦紙價向上、盈利改善,龍頭紙企彈性有超預期空間。而玖龍紙業有望量價齊升,彈性或超預期。中金上調玖龍紙業明年及2022年淨利潤分別21%及11%,至61.26億元及61.30億元,維持公司股份「中性」評級及目標價12.36元。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.