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《大行报告》中金:玖龙纸业(02689.HK)中期成长空间有望超预期
阿思达克 12-24 14:23
中金发表报告指,玖龙纸业(02689.HK)太仓工厂早前发布明年春节停机计划,影响产能约8.4万吨,明显多於去年同期的3.7万吨;前期东莞玖龙停产影响产能也明显多於去年及今年。同时,玖龙纸业广西北海795万吨林浆纸项目正式签约,年内拟开工建设。

该行表示,12月下旬,在下游春节订单逐步释放的支撑下,纸厂出货好转、下游纸箱厂库存不断去化,同时国废市场供应量略趋紧张,国废再度开启涨价节奏,推涨箱板瓦楞纸价格。近期太仓玖龙、东莞玖龙均公布春节停机计划,估算共影响产能32.4万吨,明显多於今年春节的约21万吨,占行业月度产量5%以上。考虑到需求的旺盛和成本端废纸短缺,明年首季箱板纸价格坚挺程度有望超越市场预期,公司延长停机天数,有望进一步缓释春节後库存压力,为节後提涨价格做好铺垫。

中金认为,明年行业供需改善及成本抬升,龙头弹性有望超预期,预期随着出口维持旺盛,明年箱瓦纸需求有望整体向好,新增供给不多,行业供需面有望改善。同时,随着进口废纸配额归零,测算明年国废实际缺口很可能超过500万吨,占总废纸需求接近10%,有望推动国废价格显着走高,使箱瓦纸成本支撑强化。

在行业供需面改善背景下,该行认为废纸涨价有望带动明年箱瓦纸价向上、盈利改善,龙头纸企弹性有超预期空间。而玖龙纸业有望量价齐升,弹性或超预期。中金上调玖龙纸业明年及2022年净利润分别21%及11%,至61.26亿元及61.30亿元,维持公司股份「中性」评级及目标价12.36元。

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