植耀辉: 港股26,000点不宜失 港交所(00388.HK)前景续看好
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，英国疫情大爆发，一度令金融市场出现剧震，不过对欧美股市影响暂时较想像中轻微，看来大家也认为，疫情爆发至今已近一年，扩散已「没甚麽大不了」，最关键的还是疫苗到底是否能成为最终「救命草」。所以来年大市其中一个最大变数，应是疫情是否能真正受控以及疫苗所发挥之作用。
回说港股，在长假期前表现亦相当麻麻，在A股下跌拖累下，恒指一度失守26,000点，虽然最终仍能收於26,100点附近，但整体走势明显转弱。加上外围以至A股表现亦有所转差，即使入市亦不妨待假期後再作部署。
或者基於市况依旧充满不确定性，在此情况下，资金继续炒作半新股。很多时新股短期炒作实在难以用基本面分析，但无可否认升幅十分惊人，例如VESYNC(02148.HK)及泡泡玛特(09992.HK)现时已分别较招股价累升1.16倍及1.31倍，所以即使较後时间出现显着回调亦正常，何况现时估值实在高得有点不合理矣，建议如从高位回调约10%至15%，可考虑先行沽出获利，并买份好好的圣诞礼物，给家人或自己开心一下。
另外，如无意外美国总统特朗普将於明年1月20日正式卸任。但在此之前，似乎针对中方措施仍会继续出台，最新便签署法案，除非中国公司接受美国监管机构审查会计审计，否则中概股将需要退市。笔者曾在此专栏阐述有关影响，故不再累赘。但此举对美国上市之中概股冲击不少，始终两地审计标准不同，未来或会出现一波「退市潮」。
但港交所(00388.HK)却有很大机会成为今次事件大赢家。过去中概股选择到美国上市，主要是当地较偏爱科技创新企业，从而取得更高估值，而且美国股市一向较开放灵活，因此成为企业上市首选。然而，港交所近年进行多项改革，例如允许「同股不同权」企业上市，以及吸引中概股回港作「第二上市」之措施；另外，港股通的推出亦令更多内地资金涌港，虽然会令港股变得「A股化」，但亦确实推升部分股份估值，变相吸近更多中概股回归。
可以预期，未来一至两年时间，中概股第二上市将成为利好港交所表现之一，同时日均成交量以及相关衍生工具亦有望进一步攀升，加上互联互通等因素，相信港交所未来表现仍值得看高一线，可候调整至385至390元附近再作吸纳。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，持有港交所股份)~
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