華住集團-S(01179.HK)：Q4國內業務繼續強勁回升，疫情後着力佈局下沉市場，維持“增持”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：增持
核心觀點：
財務情況：Q3 國內業務盈利達 4.8 億元，加盟店收入同比增長 4%，現金流繼續大幅改善（注：除特殊説明外均採用人民幣為貨幣單位）。
華住 Q3 營收同比增長 3.4%至 31.6 億元，剔除DH 酒店後營收同比下降 10.5%，收入降幅符合預期，其中原有品牌加盟收入同比+4%。20Q3 GAAP 歸母淨虧損 2.12 億元，而華住原有品牌 GAAP 歸母淨利潤 4.82 億元。20Q3 經營性淨現金流為 11.39 億元，環比大幅改善（20Q1、Q2 分別為為-13.46 億元和 5.12 億元）。
經營情況：Q3 總體持續改善，Q4 國內業務繼續強勁回升，DH 酒店承壓。Q3 華住原有品牌營業中酒店 RevPAR/ADR/OCC 分別為 179 元/218 元/82.0%，YOY 分別為-16.9%/-11.1%/-5.7pct，預計 Q4RevPAR有望恢復至同期 90%以上。DH 酒店受海外第二波疫情影響仍較大。
拓店情況：Q3 開店提速，全年開店1600-1800 家目標不變。根據公司財報，Q3 華住原有品牌新開店 520 家，關店 201 家，淨開店 319 家；而 Q1 和 Q2 淨開店 220 家和 233 家，公司 2020 年維持全年開店1600-1800 家的目標不變，預計關店 550-600 家。疫情之後公司加大力度佈局下沉市場，今年前 10 月公司新開門店中，44%的門店位於三線及以下層級城市，截至 10 月底公司儲備門店一線、二線、三線及以13%、37%和下層級城市佔比分別為 50%。
總體觀點：疫情之後 着力佈局下沉市場，看好龍頭長期競爭優勢。預 計 2020-22 年 Non GAAP 淨利潤分別為-7.3、19.1 和 22.0 億元。公司效率優勢突出，近年來門店拓展提速，結構不斷優化，儲備門店豐富。今年以來公司進行了組織架構調整升級，加大布局下沉市場，有利於效率提升和聚焦中國市場，看好疫情後的業績高彈性和長期增長空間，維持華住酒店（HTHT.O）和華住集團（01179.HK）“增持”評級。
風險提示。疫情影響存在不確定性，加盟店擴展速度不及預期等。
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