惠譽料明年中國鋼鐵產量達10億噸
評級機構惠譽發表報告指,明年中國鋼鐵產量及表觀消費量將分別達到10億噸以上及約9.8億噸,與去年大致持平,行業基本面表現趨穩。
報告指,受政府經濟刺激措施的驅動,今年首九個月廣義基礎設施投資及房地產開發投資分別增長2.4%及5.6%,惠譽預計明年固定資產投資將繼續以低個位數增長,持續支撐鋼材需求。中國鋼鐵企業營收及利潤提升,加上資本支出企穩,將支持行業釋放自由現金流,降低行業槓桿率。
惠譽預計,由於中國進一步推行超低排放標準,環保措施趨嚴或將抑制供應。小型廠商將面臨更多壓力,因其需要投入更多資金滿足不斷變更的環境相關法規要求,且如果未能達到排放標準,將會受到生產中斷的影響。
報告並指,「產能置換」計劃將有效推動全國範圍內實現鋼鐵減產,升級版產能置換計劃可能將於今年底推出。國有企業將繼續在行業整合進程中發揮主導作用。
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