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信义玻璃(00868.HK):盈利能力远高于预期,维持“增持”评级
格隆汇 12-22 11:41

机构:银河证券

评级:增持

盈利预喜反映 2020下半年表现强劲● 根据信义玻璃的盈喜公告,公司预计 2020 年净利润将同比增长 20%至 35%。公司的业绩远高于预期,因为我们预计 2020 年净利润同比下降 0.5%(由于 2019 年录得出售收益)。根据公告,盈利能力显着改善是由于:a)2020 下半年浮法玻璃的平均售价大幅上涨;b)下半年浮法玻璃的销量大增;c)信义光能的利润贡献增加。根据信义光能的盈喜公告,公司预计其净利润大增 75%至 95%(2019 年:24.165 亿港元)。增长的原因是:a)太阳能玻璃产品的销量增加;b)太阳能玻璃产品平均售价上升;c)生产效率提高。房地产相关数据在 11月继续改善● 国家统计局周一发布了 11 月的宏观数据。与房地产相关的数据在 11 月继续改善。新开工物业面积同比增长 4.1%,高于 10 月份的3.5%、9 月的-1.9%和 8 月的2.4%。11 月新竣工物业面积同比增长 3.1%。,较 10 月的 5.9%的增速有所回落,但仍好于 6 月至 9月同比下降的情况。在建物业面积同比增长 11.9%,逆转了10 月同比下降 1.9%和9 月同比下降 4.5%的趋势。进入上升周期● 我们认为,鉴于供需形势变得更为有利,浮法玻璃行业将进入上升周期,并且考虑到信义玻璃产能扩大,预计该公司的表现将优于同业。我们暂未在模型中计及中国玻璃[3300.HK]交易的贡献,因为仍然存在不确定性。但是我们认为,尽管年初至今公司股价表现强劲,但我们认为股份将继续被重估,主要是考虑到其增长潜力以及信义光能带来的贡献。我们维持「增持」评级,目标价为 23.17 港元。

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