微創醫療(00853.HK)：政策風險出清，長期成長性高，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
冠脈支架國採落地，新品和海外市場值得期待。11 月 5 日冠脈支架國採結果公佈。此前微創已通過母公司配售及子公司融資獲得 70 多億人民幣，有充沛的現金支撐各業務未來發展。公司未來的成長更多將由心臟瓣膜、手術機器人、神經介入、心律管理等業務的發展帶動。公司優勢產品在海外獲證順利，全球化佈局加快。支架國採落地後，公司政策風險出清，多元化及全球化的佈局使公司具備高長期成長性。
微創心通醫療於港交所交表，瓣膜領域佈局全面且領先。11 月 6 日，子公司微創心通向港交所提交上市申請。心通專注於心髒瓣膜疾病領域，2010 年開始開發第一代 TAVR 產品，於 2019 年 7 月獲批上市，二代產品已於 2020 年 10 月提交上市申請。同時心通也在開發第三代TAVR 產品，並通過自主研發及合作引進，建立起擁有 5 個 TMV（二尖瓣修復/置換）產品、2 個 TTV（三尖瓣修復/置換）產品、外科瓣膜產品及一系列手術配套產品的研發管線。佈局全面，研發進度領先。
機器人子公司擬分拆上市，即將進入商業化收穫期。12 月 11 日公司公告考慮可能分拆機器人子公司上市。經過多年研發創新與產業積累，微創機器人已掌握手術機器人全鏈條底層技術，具備多學科集成及平台化拓展能力，業務覆蓋腔鏡、骨科、血管介入、自然腔道、經皮穿刺五大領域。公司已有三款產品進入綠色通道，三維電子腹腔鏡、腔鏡手術機器人、關節置換手術機器人將陸續進入商業化收穫期。
盈利預測與投資建議：採用 DCF 估值方法得到公司合理價值為 47.85港元/股。公司引領中國多個高端器械細分領域的進口替代，堅持研發投入，產品不斷升級換代，未來以創新推動持續成長，國內業務的高成長和海外銷售規模的逐步擴大可期，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：產品銷售不達預期；研發進度低於預期；行業政策風險。
（*如非特殊説明，本報告貨幣單位為美元）
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