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《大行報告》中金重申全面看好內銀股 政策環境助力報表修復
阿思達克 12-21 14:22
中金發表的報告指,中央經濟工作會議通稿發布後,該行認為恢復發展和高質量發展是2021年經濟工作關鍵字,相估宏觀政策和復甦環境有助銀行資產負債表加快修復,逆週期政策的可能退出也有助於營收能力恢復。

該行指出近期A/H銀行指數有所調整,主要源自投資者擔心美國金融制裁(對主要銀行是低概率事件)和年底交易風格,高頻調研反饋銀行核心經營指標如預期恢復。

中金重申全面看好內銀股,內銀板塊處在業績型反轉、風險溢價反轉、估值倉位反轉的起點,料未來三至五個季度,A/H銀行指數上漲空間超過50/60%,而H股將跑贏A股。據修復盈利邏輯,料中資銀行業績大幅波動必然帶來估值彈性恢復。在個股層面,中金推薦估值修復邏輯的興業銀行(601166.SH)、光大銀行(06818.HK)和四大行A/H,以及受益於新一輪業績/估值分化的招行(03968.HK)、平安銀行(000001.SZ)等。

該行認為「轉彎」表示流動性環境收緊,方向性變化已充分預期;「不急轉彎」,即退出節奏適配經濟恢復進程,降低了此前投資者擔心的過快退出問題,預計2021年類似2018年社融失速事件再次發生概率大幅降低,流動性環境有望保持平穩。另外,經濟逐步復甦,逆週期政策退出概率不斷提高,除社融增速收斂至常態,金融讓利、普惠貸款定價等政策亦有望擇機擇時退出。往後預計明年貸款定價更多以LPR加點方實現,銀行息差下行壓力可能得以緩解。

另一方面內生補充與外源補充兼顧以補充資本金。該行指出工作會議提及「多渠道補充銀行資本金」,今年以來銀行等金融機構通過金融讓利政策支持實體經濟復蘇,營收層面影響較大,另外疫情亦負面影響資產質量行業利潤大幅負增長導致資本缺口,料明年銀行機構將通過利潤釋放和外部補充提高資本充足率。

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