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《大行报告》中金重申全面看好内银股 政策环境助力报表修复
阿思达克 12-21 14:22
中金发表的报告指,中央经济工作会议通稿发布後,该行认为恢复发展和高质量发展是2021年经济工作关键字,相估宏观政策和复苏环境有助银行资产负债表加快修复,逆周期政策的可能退出也有助於营收能力恢复。

该行指出近期A/H银行指数有所调整,主要源自投资者担心美国金融制裁(对主要银行是低概率事件)和年底交易风格,高频调研反馈银行核心经营指标如预期恢复。

中金重申全面看好内银股,内银板块处在业绩型反转、风险溢价反转、估值仓位反转的起点,料未来三至五个季度,A/H银行指数上涨空间超过50/60%,而H股将跑赢A股。据修复盈利逻辑,料中资银行业绩大幅波动必然带来估值弹性恢复。在个股层面,中金推荐估值修复逻辑的兴业银行(601166.SH)、光大银行(06818.HK)和四大行A/H,以及受益於新一轮业绩/估值分化的招行(03968.HK)、平安银行(000001.SZ)等。

该行认为「转弯」表示流动性环境收紧,方向性变化已充分预期;「不急转弯」,即退出节奏适配经济恢复进程,降低了此前投资者担心的过快退出问题,预计2021年类似2018年社融失速事件再次发生概率大幅降低,流动性环境有望保持平稳。另外,经济逐步复苏,逆周期政策退出概率不断提高,除社融增速收敛至常态,金融让利、普惠贷款定价等政策亦有望择机择时退出。往後预计明年贷款定价更多以LPR加点方实现,银行息差下行压力可能得以缓解。

另一方面内生补充与外源补充兼顾以补充资本金。该行指出工作会议提及「多渠道补充银行资本金」,今年以来银行等金融机构通过金融让利政策支持实体经济复苏,营收层面影响较大,另外疫情亦负面影响资产质量行业利润大幅负增长导致资本缺口,料明年银行机构将通过利润释放和外部补充提高资本充足率。

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