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《大行報告》中金:留意中芯(00981.HK)短期供應鏈是否穩定 料工藝成熟影響長期可控
阿思達克 12-21 10:01
中金發表報告表示,就美國商務部公布中芯國際(00981.HK)及相關實體正式被列入實體清單,據該行以往的研究結論(非美國企業如何判定是否受美國出口管理條例約束等),原則上,任何美國技術成分佔比超過25%的半導體設備/材料/EDA軟件等向中芯出口時,均需要事先獲得美國商務部許可。而且美國商務部指出,原則上禁止向中芯國際出口專門用於10nm及以下先進工藝的設備等產品。

該行認為,中芯先進工藝擴產面臨挑戰,正常生產是否受影響有待觀察,指目前中芯國際14nm及以下先進制程的研發及量產,主要由子公司中芯南方承擔(該行預計其2020年收入佔合併報表口徑比例小於2%),截至目前,該行測算中芯南方的投資金額約為70億美元。此次中芯及相關實體被列入實體清單後,原則上美國將禁止向中芯及相關實體出口10nm以下設備及材料。由於短期美國設備的不可替代性,認為未來中芯南方擴產可能面臨較大挑戰。

半導體生產過程中,需要特殊氣體(美國氣體),拋光墊(陶氏化學)等美國產材料,這些材料是否會受限,對目前產能的生產是否會造成影響有待觀察。該行認為中芯成熟工藝影響長期可控,短期留意供應鏈穩定,對於10nm以上製程,中芯在生產中除了會使用美國設備以外,也會採購美國產半導體材料(如氣體等電子化學品)及EDA軟件。該行預計中芯在向美國政府申請出口許可的同時,也會積極導入日本、歐洲及國產等新供應商,長期來看影響有限,但短期是否會對供應鏈穩定造成影響有待觀察。

對供應鏈的影響方面,中金認為中芯作為全球第五大(按去年年收入口徑)代工廠,該行認為,公司被列入實體清單後,下游客戶可能面臨設備及原材料的重新驗證,短期是否會出現交付延遲等問題有待觀察。

中金指維持中芯盈利預測,維持對其H股的「跑贏行業」評級及目標價25.5元不變。

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