希望教育(01765.HK)：內生外延確保業績高速增長，維持”買入“評級，目標價3.20港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：3.20港元
投資要點
維持“買入”評級，目標價 3.20港元：希望教育繼續通過內生+外延的發展模式擴張，現有學校提升運營效率和招生能力，同時抓住併購機會，擴大業務版圖，目前學生數量達到 16所，學生總人數達到 19.5萬人，同比增速達到38.8%，處於行業領先水平。我們預計公司FY2021/2022收入為25.8 和 28.1 億元，分別同比增長 64.8%和 8.7%，調整後歸母淨利潤分別為 8.5 和 10.0 億元，分別同比增長 47.1%和 17.5%。公司目前股價對應2020/2021財年經調整利潤的 15/13倍PE，估值處於較低水平。我們維持公司買入評級， 目標價3.2港元， 相當於2021/2022財年經調整利潤的23/20倍PE，較現價有 52%的上升空間。
FY2020 年度業績符合預期：希望教育變更財務財政年度，年報截止日由12/31調整至08/31， 可以更好體現學歷教育服務的週期性。截止20200831的12個月，公司的營業收入 15.68億元，同比增長 45.3%，其中學費、寄宿費和其他收入的佔比分別為 84%、6%和 10%；毛利為 7.8 億元，同比增長54.2%，經調整純利為 5.76億元，同比增長60.8%，公司的毛利率和調整後淨利率分別為49.6%和 36.7%， 較上年同期分別有 2.9和3.5個百分點的提升。公司業績符合預期。
利潤率穩中有升：公司2020財年毛利率達到49.6%，比上年同期提升 2.9個百分點；核心淨利率 36.7%，比上年同期提升 3.5 個百分點。隨着公司各學校利用率提升以及學校運營效率的提升，公司的利潤率未來仍然有提升空間。
內生外延確保在校學生人數再創新高：截止目前，公司共運營16所學校，其中 6 所本科，8 所高職，2 所技師學院，年內新增 2 所學校。總在校人數達到19.5萬人，同比增長 38.8%，學校的利用率由去年的 81.9%提升至86.9%。僅考慮公司原有學校的內生增長，學生人數同比增長 28.5%，顯示出公司突出的運營和招生能力。
風險提示： 教育政策變動；學校併購整合不及預期；招生及學費提升不及預期；VIE架構政策風險。
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