希望教育(01765.HK)：内生外延确保业绩高速增长，维持”买入“评级，目标价3.20港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：3.20港元
投资要点
维持“买入”评级，目标价 3.20港元：希望教育继续通过内生+外延的发展模式扩张，现有学校提升运营效率和招生能力，同时抓住并购机会，扩大业务版图，目前学生数量达到 16所，学生总人数达到 19.5万人，同比增速达到38.8%，处于行业领先水平。我们预计公司FY2021/2022收入为25.8 和 28.1 亿元，分别同比增长 64.8%和 8.7%，调整后归母净利润分别为 8.5 和 10.0 亿元，分别同比增长 47.1%和 17.5%。公司目前股价对应2020/2021财年经调整利润的 15/13倍PE，估值处于较低水平。我们维持公司买入评级， 目标价3.2港元， 相当于2021/2022财年经调整利润的23/20倍PE，较现价有 52%的上升空间。
FY2020 年度业绩符合预期：希望教育变更财务财政年度，年报截止日由12/31调整至08/31， 可以更好体现学历教育服务的周期性。截止20200831的12个月，公司的营业收入 15.68亿元，同比增长 45.3%，其中学费、寄宿费和其他收入的占比分别为 84%、6%和 10%；毛利为 7.8 亿元，同比增长54.2%，经调整纯利为 5.76亿元，同比增长60.8%，公司的毛利率和调整后净利率分别为49.6%和 36.7%， 较上年同期分别有 2.9和3.5个百分点的提升。公司业绩符合预期。
利润率稳中有升：公司2020财年毛利率达到49.6%，比上年同期提升 2.9个百分点；核心净利率 36.7%，比上年同期提升 3.5 个百分点。随着公司各学校利用率提升以及学校运营效率的提升，公司的利润率未来仍然有提升空间。
内生外延确保在校学生人数再创新高：截止目前，公司共运营16所学校，其中 6 所本科，8 所高职，2 所技师学院，年内新增 2 所学校。总在校人数达到19.5万人，同比增长 38.8%，学校的利用率由去年的 81.9%提升至86.9%。仅考虑公司原有学校的内生增长，学生人数同比增长 28.5%，显示出公司突出的运营和招生能力。
风险提示： 教育政策变动；学校并购整合不及预期；招生及学费提升不及预期；VIE架构政策风险。
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