信義光能(00968.HK)：增發迎來行業新機遇，莫失逢低吸納的良機，給予“買入”評級，目標價18.70 港元
機構：中泰國際
評級：買入
目標價：18.70 港元
近日一連串事件凸顯增發時機成熟，重申“買入”評級
公司本週二(15 日)晚公佈預計 2020 年股東淨利潤將同比上升 75%-95%，盈喜遠超市場預期，昨天工信部公開徵求對《水泥玻璃行業產能置換實施辦法（修訂稿）》的意見，重新放開光伏玻璃產能置換限制，市場憂慮新產能釋放後玻璃價格下跌，股價應聲下跌。公司今早則公告，按每股 13.00 港元(相等於昨日收盤價 13.94 港元的 6.7%折讓)增發 3 億股份以籌集淨金額 38.8 億港幣。公司總股本將因此增加 3.5%。主要股東李賢義先生及信義玻璃(868 HK；未評級)的總持股比例則由 50.55%輕微下跌至 48.83%，股比低於一半但實質上仍可控制公司。雖然公司上一次股份增發是在今年 9 月，按每股 9.44 港元籌集淨金額 26.5 億港幣，但是這次增發時機依然成熟，可以增強資本以迎來上述政策文件帶來的新機遇。我們重申“買入”評級。
市場過於憂慮政策影響，現有龍頭光伏玻璃生產商實際上將更易擴容
上述政策文件中最受市場關注的部份是：光伏壓延玻璃項目可不制定產能置換方案(即不受淘汰減量影響)。我們認為市場過於憂慮光伏玻璃產能將會大幅度增加而影響現有生產商。政策文件事實上列明，新建項目仍需要獲得有關當局考慮能耗及環保等因素後而批准才可進行。這反而有利信義光能等現有龍頭光伏玻璃生產商合乎條件，實際上更容易趁機擴容。這次股份增發標志行業新機遇的啟動。
上調 2020-2022 年盈利預測
考慮到盈喜及股份增發等上述因素後，我們分別上調 2020-2022 年股東淨利潤預測31.0%、41.9%、41.3% (見圖表 1)。
調升目標價 15.4%至 18.70 港元
我們相應將貼現現金流(DCF)分析推算的目標價由 16.20 港元上調 15.4%至 18.70 港元(見圖表 2-3)，這對應 23.0 倍 2021 年市盈率和 34.1%上升空間。 我們提議投資者莫失逢低吸納的良機。
風險提示：(一)項目延誤；(二)併網電價大幅下跌；(三)光伏玻璃價格波動；(四)燃料成本急速上升。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
