百勝中國-S(09987.HK)：餐飲巨頭本土化典範，香港上市再謀新高度，給予“增持”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：增持
餐飲行業：連鎖化發展為大勢所趨，需求日趨多元
發展趨勢：美團報告顯示，18 年中國餐飲閉店率高達 70%，平均壽命僅 508 天，單體經營再難適應行業環境，競爭加劇更考驗企業品牌與運營。2019 年中國餐飲連鎖化率 20%，同期美國為 74%，連鎖化發展大勢所趨。競爭格局：餐飲需求日趨多元，行業新進壁壘低，19 年CR5≈3.1%，百勝中國規模居首。快餐市場 CR10 僅 11%，龍頭領銜，遠期對標美國（39%）；休閒餐飲市場集中度較分散，集中度提升或依賴行業整合提速。疫情恢復：快餐、快時尚、火鍋賽道復甦顯著，百勝中國 Q1-3 分別-20%、-4%、1%，快於整體行業（-43%、-19%、-6%）。
百勝中國：餐飲創新/本土化先鋒，規模優勢馬太效應漸顯
公司擁有肯德基、必勝客、塔可貝爾、黃記煌、東方既白、小肥羊、COFFii & JOY 及 Lavazza 八大品牌，2020H1 餐廳合計為 9954 家。KFC/必勝客為核心，19 年收入分別佔 69%/23%，利潤為 82%/18%；中餐品牌看整合，咖啡業務正發力。門店模型上，KFC（約 2 年）現金回收期優於必勝客（約 4 年）。公司核心競爭力一看規模優勢（會員體系+供應鏈優勢），二看創新能力（菜品研發+數字化轉型優化成本）。
未來成長：三大法寶——存量優化+下沉擴店+新品牌孵化
核心品牌未來一看存量餐廳經營優化，外賣佔比提升、推出午茶/宵夜提升經營坪效，數字化賦能優化成本結構；二看低線滲透+加盟提速，集團遠期目標 2 萬家店體量翻倍，根據我們測算，肯德基加密+低線下沉門店空間約 1.2 萬家，仍約 40%展店空間，且加盟策略優化可進一步加密；必勝客若優化到位展店將重新加速。三看中餐、咖啡等新品牌提供新動能，新賽道佈局接力公司成長，但需關注孵化整合效果。
風險提示：下沉擴張速度緩慢、收購孵化新品牌失敗、食品安全等
本土化運營標杆，二次上市助力發展，首次覆蓋給予“增持”公司作為餐飲巨頭本土化經營典範，其中肯德基為西餐本土化打造標杆，必勝客經營優化提供經營彈性，新賽道持續孵化提供未來想象空間。預測公司 20-22 年 EPS 分別為 11.60/13.13/15.07 元人民幣，估 算合理價格在 489.4-550.2 港元之間，首次覆蓋給予 “增持”評級。
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