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建银国际证券料明年港股处23,500点至29,500点 推腾讯舜宇及吉利等十股
阿思达克 12-17 14:25
建银国际证券发表报告,预计疫情在明年第二季之後将随全球广泛性接种疫苗而缓和。因经济陆续解封和新一轮财政政策的效果显现,将会推动全球主要经济体陆续回到复苏轨道。然而,随着明年疫情逐渐缓和,预计货币政策将逐步回归正常化,利率温和回升,风险资产估值将有所收敛,回归以盈利驱动为主的模式。

建银国际证券研究部董事总经理、研究部副主管及首席策略师赵文利表示,随着各种因素有缓和迹象,港股明年盈利将有15%左右的恢复性增长,但估值进一步扩张的空间不大。指数的波幅将会收敛,但个股和板块的分化将会加剧,精选个股变得更为重要。赵文利预料,港股明年全年大致呈前高後低的M型走势,恒生指数全年波动区间在23,500点至29,500点,国企指数波动区间介於9,500点至12,000点,科技指数介於7,000点至9,500点。

该行建议配置投资机会时需要关注全球经济复苏预期下价值和周期股的估值修复机会,成长股短期估值压力消化之後,仍是中长期配置的方向,而通关一旦正常化,港澳本地股有估值修复机会。另一方面就是重点关注十四五规划纲要相关的主题投资机会,例如双回圈、自主创新、绿色发展等。

建银国际证券十大首选股包括TMT行业中的腾讯(00700.HK)、舜宇光学(02382.HK)、金山软件(03888.HK)、华虹半导体(01347.HK);汽车行业中的吉利(00175.HK);消费行业中的安踏体育(02020.HK)、中国飞鹤(06186.HK);教育行业中的中教控股(00839.HK);能源行业中的中海油服(02883.HK);以及物业管理行业中的雅生活服务(03319.HK)。

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