汽车行业月报：产销继续增长，自主、新势力、美系表现亮眼，维持“推荐”评级
机构：兴业证券
评级：推荐
投资要点：
11 月汽车板块收益率继续跑赢大市。11 月，恒生指数上涨 9.3%；沪深 300指数上涨 5.6%；Wind 汽车与汽车零部件指数上涨 8.8%；Wind 香港汽车与汽车零部件指数上涨 21.5%。 l 汽车销量连续 8 个月同比增长；乘用车销量连续 7 个月实现同比增长，自主、美系品牌份额持续提升；商用车销量同比、环比继续增长；新能源汽车销量同比高速增长，造车新势力交付量再创新高。11 月，汽车产销分别达到 284.7万辆和 277.0 万辆，环比分别增长 11.5%和 7.6%，同比分别增长 9.6%和 12.6%；乘用车产销分别达到 232.9 万辆和 229.7 万辆，同比分别增长 7.5%和 11.6%；商用车产销分别实现 51.8 万辆和 47.2 万辆，环比分别增长 11.6%和 1.9%，同比分别增长 20.3%和 18.0%；11 月，新能源汽车产销分别达到 19.8 万辆和 20.0万辆，同比分别增长 75.1%和 104.9%。1-11 月，汽车产销同比分别下降 3.0%和 2.9%；乘用车产销分别同比减少 8.1%和 7.6%；商用车产销分别同比增长22.2%和 20.5%；新能源汽车产销分别同比分别下降 0.1%和增长 3.9%。
汽车经销商库存预警指数为 60.5%，库存提升主要是为冬季旺销期备货。
短期关注边际改善，2021-2022 年全球汽车行业有望迎来恢复性增长：根据LMC 预测，全球汽车行业 2020 年销量约为 7100 万辆，同比下降 21.3%，2021-2022 年销量增速分别为 14.7%，8.0%。
长期来看，行业基本进入存量市场。我们建议关注市场中的结构性增长机会： 1、政策背景下，传统车企与新势力将于 2021-2022 年集中投放多款新能源车型，新能源车将在全球迎来向上周期；2、智能网联化+轻量化+电动化推动产品技术升级，传统零部件单车价值量提升，增量零部件将为相关供应企业带来巨大成长空间。3、消费升级+价格下探，豪华车市场仍将保持高速增长，代理豪华品牌的经销商仍然有望从中受益。
我们推荐关注：（1）整车：建议重点关注吉利汽车（0175.HK）、比亚迪股份（1211.HK）、中国重汽（3808.HK）、长城汽车（2333.HK），推荐关注蔚来（NIO.N）、理想汽车(LI.O)、小鹏汽车（XPEV.N）。（2）零部件：建议重点关注敏实集团(425.HK)、福耀玻璃（3606.HK），推荐关注耐世特（1316.HK）。 （3）经销商：建议重点关注中升控股（881.HK）、永达汽车（3669.HK），推荐关注美东汽车（1268.HK）。
风险提示：1、当前事件持续；2、影响行业的相关政策；3、行业恢复不及预期。
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