盈選報告 | 光伏現過山車行情，未來投資主線如何佈局？
uSMART盈立智投12月16日消息，光伏行情再度火爆，隔夜美股清潔能源及ETF集體大漲，晶科能源大漲17.8%，今日早盤港股信義光能一度漲超9%，福萊特玻璃漲超6%，保利協鑫能源大漲超10%。
有分析認爲，2021年光伏最強邏輯已經浮現，“十四五”新增光伏發電裝機規模有望超預期。可以重點關注光伏產業鏈中供需較爲緊張的硅料和玻璃環節。
光伏玻璃是光伏組件的上遊原料，主要爲壓延法制成的超白壓花玻璃，主要作爲晶硅光伏電池組件表面的透光封裝面板，光伏玻璃行業是光伏產業鏈的重要組成部分。
光伏玻璃行業已經形成雙寡頭競爭格局，信義光能是龍頭，產能最大，佔比33%，福萊特玻璃排名第二，產能佔比22%。
昨日信義光能發盈喜，預計2020年歸母淨利潤同比增長75%-95%至42.3-47.1億港元。
對於行業供需偏緊的狀態，各機構存在共識。
中金公司稱，信義光能2020年預計盈利略超預期，主要受益於四季度中國國內搶裝帶來階段性雙玻比例提升，以及生產效率和經營槓桿進一步強化。
中金稱，大尺寸、雙玻產品是大勢所趨，將帶來玻璃供需維持緊平衡，測算明年全行業玻璃供給將增加40%至180吉瓦，需求受益遞延項目和價格彈性或反彈42%至185吉瓦，預計玻璃均價維持30元/平米以上。玻璃價格每上漲1元/平米將帶來公司7%的盈利彈性，公司龍頭規模效應凸顯。考慮到雙玻比例和均價階段性超預期，上調今年盈利預測13%至45億港幣，維持跑贏行業評級和17.35港元的目標價。
花旗指出，預計太陽能玻璃行業供應趨緊的格局將在2021年延續，維持對公司的買入評級，上調公司目標價至23.7港元。
國金證券稱，儘管從明年Q1開始陸續釋放的新產能將逐步緩解光伏玻璃當前嚴重的供不應求狀況，但總體供需仍偏緊。
午後，港股光伏太陽能板塊下挫，信義光能倒跌超2%，福萊特玻璃跌8%。
工信部就《水泥玻璃行業產能置換實施辦法（修訂稿）》公開徵求意見，文件提出，光伏壓延玻璃和汽車玻璃項目可不制定產能置換方案。
中金稱，產能置換政策若放開仍不改行業雙寡頭格局，如果後續放開產能擴張的限制，對光伏玻璃龍頭企業信義光能和福萊特玻璃的影響較小。光伏玻璃行業進入門檻仍然較高，除技術積累外，擴產週期長、前期資金投入大、合適的配套資源較爲稀缺，未來2年行業可見擴產仍主要集中在兩家龍頭。疊加海外擴產能力，龍頭地位較難撼動。
國金證券稱，中期看，產能指標有序放開利好龍頭，且浮法玻璃用於光伏組件是當前壓延玻璃供不應求狀態下的階段性選擇，龍頭領先優勢和光伏玻璃環節的中長期投資邏輯仍然紮實。
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