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建銀國際證券料明年港股處23,500點至29,500點 推騰訊舜宇及吉利等十股
阿思達克 12-17 14:25
建銀國際證券發表報告,預計疫情在明年第二季之後將隨全球廣泛性接種疫苗而緩和。因經濟陸續解封和新一輪財政政策的效果顯現,將會推動全球主要經濟體陸續回到復蘇軌道。然而,隨著明年疫情逐漸緩和,預計貨幣政策將逐步回歸正常化,利率溫和回升,風險資產估值將有所收斂,回歸以盈利驅動為主的模式。

建銀國際證券研究部董事總經理、研究部副主管及首席策略師趙文利表示,隨著各種因素有緩和跡象,港股明年盈利將有15%左右的恢復性增長,但估值進一步擴張的空間不大。指數的波幅將會收斂,但個股和板塊的分化將會加劇,精選個股變得更為重要。趙文利預料,港股明年全年大致呈前高後低的M型走勢,恆生指數全年波動區間在23,500點至29,500點,國企指數波動區間介於9,500點至12,000點,科技指數介於7,000點至9,500點。

該行建議配置投資機會時需要關注全球經濟復蘇預期下價值和週期股的估值修復機會,成長股短期估值壓力消化之後,仍是中長期配置的方向,而通關一旦正常化,港澳本地股有估值修復機會。另一方面就是重點關注十四五規劃綱要相關的主題投資機會,例如雙迴圈、自主創新、綠色發展等。

建銀國際證券十大首選股包括TMT行業中的騰訊(00700.HK)、舜宇光學(02382.HK)、金山軟件(03888.HK)、華虹半導體(01347.HK);汽車行業中的吉利(00175.HK);消費行業中的安踏體育(02020.HK)、中國飛鶴(06186.HK);教育行業中的中教控股(00839.HK);能源行業中的中海油服(02883.HK);以及物業管理行業中的雅生活服務(03319.HK)。

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