惠譽首予睿見教育(06068.HK)「BB-」評級 展望穩定
評級機構惠譽日前(12月8日)首予睿見教育(06068.HK)「BB-」的長期發行人違約評級和「BB-」的高級無抵押評級。長期發行人違約評級展望穩定。該行稱,睿見教育的評級反映了其作為領先民辦教育企業所擁有的強勁市場地位。該公司的評級受到其穩定的經常性現金流以及良好增長前景的支持,但有限的經營規模以及地域集中度的制約了評級。
惠譽稱,現金流可預測性高,其較高的營收和現金流可預測性、有限的價格敏感性以及高轉換成本鞏固了睿見教育強勁的業務狀況。該公司採用預收學費的模式,且現金流穩定(在新冠肺炎疫情下亦然),幾乎沒有學費退款。睿見教育運營超過五年的成熟校區招生人數一直處於高位,為其提供穩定的現金流。睿見教育計劃未來四年將學生容量擴大50%以上,以及截至2020年9月該公司現有學校約10%的未使用容量,將推動其營收增長。
此外,該行稱,睿見教育盈利能力強勁,提高學費的能力以及有效的成本管控令其EBITDA利潤率處於約40%的高位。惠譽預計,得益於規模效益的擴大以及新開學校進入爬坡期,睿見教育的盈利能力將溫和提升。但是,監管環境的變化可能令該公司為提高學費及配套服務收費獲得地方政府批准遇到困難。
惠譽稱,因新建學校而發生的資本支出,令過去幾年睿見教育的槓桿率有所上升,而且截至2020年8月的財年(2020財年)內該公司的FFO調整後淨槓桿率從2017財年的1.5倍升至2.6倍。儘管睿見教育的評級空間有限,但惠譽預計現金流的改善將支持該公司的槓桿率在未來幾年保持在可能導致惠譽採取負面評級行動的閥值(3.0倍)以內,支持因素有新開學校進入爬坡期,資本支出的項目有所減少,且監管限制下無大規模收購活動。
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