盈選報告 | 九毛九火鍋業態再下一城，“慫”的市場前景如何？
盈立智投12月14日消息，九毛九當日早盤再度拉昇，該股經過2個多月的盤整，股價於12月起再次啓動，近7個交易日已累計上漲23%。
安信證券在14日發佈的報告中表示，九毛九旗下火鍋業態“慫”重慶火鍋廠第二店落子海口，火鍋業態佈局持續推進，中長期繼續看好餐飲龍頭，主要有2個層次的邏輯：
1）九毛九：公司旗下火鍋業態“慫”第二店於海口開業。基於太二龐大的客羣基礎，同樣定位年輕消費者的“慫”有望直接遷移太二的忠實消費者和品牌打造方式。同時公司央廚設置在廣州與海南，短期來看廣州與海南地區的開店能力較強，或有望打開中長期多餐飲業態發展空間。
2）餐飲行業：疫情期間中小餐廳大量倒閉，購物中心優質物業騰出+低租金招租下，海底撈、九毛九、呷哺呷哺等龍頭有望逆勢加速儲備項目，未來2~3年餐飲龍頭展店有望迎來加速成長，繼續推薦。
九毛九管理層此前曾表示，太二品牌今年新開店數有望達到100家，明年新開店數約爲100-120家。同時，9月和10月同店銷售額穩步恢復。此外，慫重慶火鍋廠10月經營表現較好，品牌模型仍在不斷完善。
中金公司認爲，太二持續快速擴張，同店銷售額穩步恢復。最新的開店數預計，高於此前指引的80家和100家。據觀測，截至10月底，太二今年新開門店數已超過80家。在門店快速擴張的同時，同店銷售額也在穩步恢復。
該行分析師估測，9月和10月太二同店銷售額均較去年同期增長2%，外賣佔比由9月的12%降至10月的10%。估計九毛九品牌9月和10月同店銷售額分別恢復至去年同期的83%和89%，外賣佔比由9月的26%降至10月的25%。
投資者可以關注慫重慶火鍋廠的進一步發展。慫品牌從9月25日開始經營午市，10月經營表現較好，翻檯率達到4.7。管理層表示，慫品牌的第二家門店正在裝修中，有望於12月開業。公司計劃以後將更多慫品牌餐廳開在購物中心內，並據此不斷完善其經營模型。
考慮太二持續快速擴張，中金公司將2020年太二品牌淨開店預測由80家上調至100家，據此上調2020年盈利預測3%至4576萬元、上調2021年盈利預測7%至5.05億元，維持跑贏行業評級，上調目標價10%至22港元，對應56倍2021年市盈率。
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