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华侨银行料疫苗进展利好本港明年复苏 楼市回调後或反弹
阿思达克 12-14 16:59
华侨银行经济师谢栋铭及华侨永亨银行经济师李若凡发表报告称,由於本港疫情日益严峻,政府进一步收紧社交距离措施。从好的方面来看,政府正研究向业界(特别是被逼暂停营业的行业)提供更精准及更具针对性的支援措施。而财政司司长陈茂波亦称不适宜於下一个财年采取财政紧缩措施。另一方面,香港政府上周五(11日)称与两间疫苗供应商达成协议,可供应共1,500万剂疫苗。首批100万剂最快於明年1月到港。总括而言,积极的财政政策及疫苗方面的乐观进展,料有助重振商业及消费信心,同时为2021年经济复苏铺路。

随着经济重拾增长动能,贸易业、金融业及楼市可能受惠。贸易业方面,该行预期进口和出口明年可能反弹约5%,因为除了低基数效应之外,外需反弹以及中国和其他地区特别是亚洲国家的贸易活动进一步扩张,也可能支持贸易业增长。而香港贸发局亦预期香港明年出口将回升5%。金融业方面,流动性充裕,以及基於疫苗进展的乐观经济前景,可能推升风险偏好。因此,该行预期明年下半年贷款需求可能反弹,而IPO市场亦可能保持活跃。具体而言,未来可能有超过25只符合资格的中概股在港进行二次上市,并可能集资逾250亿美元(假设为中概股市值的6%),特别是在退市风险上升的情况下。另外,香港的IPO规则亦可能继续吸引生物科技公司在港上市。最後,虽然疫情反扑导致楼市回调,但随着经济和劳动力市场携手复苏,在利率低位徘徊及房屋供应短缺的情况下,楼市或将在短暂回调後重拾升幅。

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