酒店板塊三季報總結：境內一枝獨秀，邁過極端困境加速前行
機構：興業證券
回顧今年以來酒店市場表現來看，上半年主要受境內疫情變化影響，整體表現弱於市場，三季度錦江在內部管理改善預期下走出獨立行情，估值有所修復，4季度在疫苗取得積極進展，國內宏觀經濟強勁表現下，低估值首旅酒店開啟估值修復，運營優勢顯著的華住在美股牛市及經營數據顯著改善下創下新高，海外酒店公司均走出超跌反彈趨勢，隨着疫苗積極進展和市場走強，基本修復到年初水平。
短期經營數據低基數及商旅復甦下加速回暖趨勢預計不變。19年Q4運營數據創下16年行業改善以來新低，低基數疊加商務旅遊市場7月以來逐步復甦，頭部三家酒店整體RevPAR已恢復到去年同期9成以上水平，OCC跌幅縮窄至低個位數，頭部公司數據恢復好於行業需求整體的復甦，有單體酒店加速出清行業供給端改善，同時有疫情影響下消費者需求選擇更偏好品牌酒店的需求轉移，雖然短期個別地方疫情出現反彈，但我們預計復甦趨勢將不會出現變化。頭部公司紛紛加速開店，加盟商投資意願回升。
目前3大酒店集團紛紛提出萬店計劃，華住計劃22年在營門店破萬家，首旅23年突破萬家，錦江23年突破13,000家，擴張提速有加速下沉的機會，也有行業層面品牌酒店領先的單體模型及疫情影響下連鎖化率加速提升邏輯。近年來加速輕資產化，疊加A股酒店內部管理改善，ROE迎來上升週期。在沒有新經濟週期預期下，同店波動變得平穩，開店和內部效率提升變得更加重要，輕資產化模式下，今年在極端疫情影響下現金流恢復能力得到驗證，同時，疫情也驅動相應公司加速內部整合，成本費用優化，疊加輕資產更強的盈利能力和穩健性，ROE將迎來上升週期。
投資建議：持續看好錦江內部管理渠道改善驅動盈利能力提升，以及中端領先的多品牌矩陣開店加速擴張，繼續看好各方面領先優勢顯著的華住，短期看好首旅順週期下的業績彈性及開店預期的提升，同時有環球影城主題催化（20Q3末公司7.4%客房在北京地區），β屬性強（目前21年估值約23倍，正常有望修復至25-30倍）。
催化劑：經濟預期改善，中美貿易摩擦緩和，開店超預期，控本降費顯著，運營數據回暖顯著，市場指數漲幅顯著。
風險提示：宏觀經濟下滑，門店擴張和RevPAR增速不及預期，管理改善和內部整合進展不及預期，商譽減值損失，股東減持風險等。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
