液壓行業報告：機械進口替代加速，國產液壓龍頭崛起，給予“推薦”行業評級
機構：國元證券
評級：推薦
報告要點：
工程機械復甦拉動液壓件需求，液驅電控拓寬市場空間
2019年全球液壓市場規模為316億歐元，我國液壓市場規模達95億歐元，僅低於美國、遠超日本及北歐等發達國家，是近幾年成長較快的地區。中國液壓件市場的下游行業以工程機械、汽車、重型機械、機牀工具為主，其中工程機械行業佔比40%以上，隨着基建投資不斷增加，工程機械景氣度向好，液壓件需求將進一步提升。此外，液壓技術正向“液驅電控”發展，在“液驅液控”向“液驅電控”技術升級過程中，液壓設備公司的市場需求潛在空間得到擴大。
國際巨頭佔據領先地位，國內龍頭逐步追趕並反超
德、美、日製造業底藴深厚，液壓產業在全球保持規模和技術領先。2019年在液壓業務領域，國外企業營收實現百億人民幣以上的有博世力士樂、派克漢尼汾、伊頓公司、川崎重工，四家合計佔據全球42.3%的市場份額，行業集中度雖然較高，但較2012年下降4pct，有明顯分散趨勢。聚焦國內，液壓龍頭企業已進入規模迅速擴張期，正從收入增速、盈利質量等多方面反超國際企業。恆立液壓不僅是規模最大的內資品牌，在液壓領域的營業利潤上和國內營收上也已超過KYB、納博特斯克等日系企業，並且在高端液壓件領域持續深入；2020年前三季度實現營收53.2億元，同比增長38.9%。艾迪精密的液壓泵、液壓馬達、液壓閥持續發力，也獲得了一定市場份額；2020年前三季度實現營收16.1億元，同比增長50.6%。
國內進口替代市場仍超百億元，國際市場穩步開拓
2019年我國液壓件進口額約120億元，油缸產品基本實現國產化，但液壓泵閥、馬達等高端液壓件仍存在超百億元的替代空間。同時，2019年，我國液壓產品出口額達到96.6億元，2011~2019年出口額複合增速14.7%，以恆立液壓為代表的內資品牌在實現進口替代的同時持續開拓國際市場，2019年海外收入佔比達18%。?投資建議國內液壓企業技術上已經取得進步，液壓油缸已經基本實現國產化，部分液壓件企業在盈利能力上已經追平甚至超越外資龍頭，未來在高端泵閥液壓件產品上有望進入加速突破期；我們認為隨着需求量增大，國內液壓龍頭進口替代進一步加速，有望打破外資企業在國內領先局面，市佔率得到快速提升。建議重點關注恆立液壓、艾迪精密。
風險提示
高端液壓件國產化不及預期；下游工程機械行業需求下滑；新技術運用不及預期。
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