鐵礦石專題報告：供需偏緊格局或持續，維持“中性”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：中性
四大礦山引領行業供應
澳大利亞、巴西鐵礦石儲量大、品位高、易開採。四大礦山受益於資源優勢，生產成本大幅低於行業平均水平，實現了對非主流鐵礦石市場的擠佔，形成類似寡頭壟斷的局面。鐵礦石市場普遍按照普氏指數作為主流參考標的進行月度定價，受到供需變化、成本、政策等諸多因素的影響，但四大礦山發貨量的改變對於全球鐵礦石價格的影響仍然不容忽視。
四大礦山發展現狀
2020年，受到疫情以及潰壩事故的持續影響，淡水河谷產銷量大幅下降；澳洲三大礦山一季度受颶風影響產銷小幅波動，隨後較快恢復穩定。當前，四大礦山資本開支均處於較低水平，且大部分新建鐵礦石項目用於替代資源枯竭老礦，預期未來鐵礦石產量增速將放緩。
疫情擾動鐵礦石行業供需
近期鐵礦石價格持續上漲，主要因為供需偏緊。從需求端看，疫情影響下，我國以外地區鋼鐵需求量大幅縮減，但國內鋼材消費保持較快增長，強勢帶動鐵礦石消費增長。從供給端看，疫情對鐵礦石供應造成明顯影響，特別是巴西發貨量在去年淡水河谷潰壩事故影響的低基數下繼續大幅下降，非主流礦供應雖有上升，但全球鐵礦石發貨量整體仍小幅下降。
鐵礦石供需緊張，價格或保持高位
短期來看，我國港口鐵礦石庫存持續下降，供需仍偏緊，但市場監管力度加強，投機行為被抑制，鐵礦石價格上行難度加大。展望2021年，行業供給增量有限，四大礦山主要增產來源為淡水河谷停產礦山復產，但復產進度存在較大的不確定性；而需求有望保持增長，隨着疫苗研發的進展以及各國經濟扶持政策的推動，全球鋼鐵企業有望陸續復產，帶動鐵礦石消費增長。鐵礦石供需仍將保持緊平衡狀態，促使礦價保持高位。
鋼廠利潤空間結構性分化
鐵礦石價格的大幅上漲，直接拉高鋼廠原材料成本。但對於不同鋼廠的影響程度有明顯區別，促使鋼廠利潤空間表現出結構性分化。一是主要生產鋼材品種不同，因下游需求表現分化，板材企業可將成本轉嫁向下遊企業，利潤情況好於長材企業。二是鐵礦石資源稟賦不同，具備自有鐵礦石資源以及應用內礦比例較高的鋼廠成本上漲幅度相對較小。
風險提示
全球經濟復甦不及預期。鐵礦石供應增量超預期。中澳關係等政治因素。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
